Future of CAD/CAM/Manufacturing?

[Ydna]

I finished up a brief robotics contract back when Tesla (company) was polishing up their battery production lines in fremont cali. I had the opportunity to meet him when he was touring the floor one day, but I was hungry and wanted to go eat. kinda kicking myself about that for the last 3 years now...

[Davros]

You guys are totally ignoring the progress of every technology in history if you do not think 3D printing will be common place one day. Not soon for all the reasons mentioned, but it will be common place eventually. A century or two from now everyone will make their own stuff because no one will be able to compete with the cost of the massive manufacturing of the commodity of a block of metal. Assuming the world does not fall apart from all our current social problems, something I am not optimistic about.

People said some of the same things about desktop publishing and 2D printing. Printing at home? But that requires knowing how to use a computer, that would never happen. Who does not have a printer now?

With current technology it is interesting if limited. Within the limitations, if I need to make something I can download it, press the mouse button 5 times and my printer makes it. Why are people going on about 3D printing being incredibly complex for the end user?

BTW, I envy all you machinists. Although I think it inevitable that 3D printing will change manufacturing radically one day, we and the next generation will be long dead by then and getting into 3D printing has created an interest in manufacturing in me. Traditional machining is where it is at right now, and I wish I knew 1/50th about it as much as you guys do, let alone 50/50th. :-)

[cockerpunk]

You guys are totally ignoring the progress of every technology in history if you do not think 3D printing will be common place one day. Not soon for all the reasons mentioned, but it will be common place eventually. A century or two from now everyone will make their own stuff because no one will be able to compete with the cost of the massive manufacturing of the commodity of a block of metal. Assuming the world does not fall apart from all our current social problems, something I am not optimistic about.

People said some of the same things about desktop publishing and 2D printing. Printing at home? But that requires knowing how to use a computer, that would never happen. Who does not have a printer now?

With current technology it is interesting if limited. Within the limitations, if I need to make something I can download it, press the mouse button 5 times and my printer makes it. Why are people going on about 3D printing being incredibly complex for the end user?

BTW, I envy all you machinists. Although I think it inevitable that 3D printing will change manufacturing radically one day, we and the next generation will be long dead by then and getting into 3D printing has created an interest in manufacturing in me. Traditional machining is where it is at right now, and I wish I knew 1/50th about it as much as you guys do, let alone 50/50th. :-)

im not dumb enough to make predictions about how we will live in 100 years.

[Ydna]

I think once the prevalence of metal sintering and metal printing machines become more and more common it'll open up a new page for figuring out usefulness, and stuff might plateau around there. Right now the finished products seem like they suffer from issues found in traditionally cast items, like being stiff yet brittle. The quality of non-flexibility is good for some things but not everything. I think the point cockerpunk was getting earlier (maybe he said it, I don't recall) is that there's some limitations in how certain items are made, for example forgings and material treatments like heattreating, tempering, solution quenching, etc. And at present the SLS metal printers can only use certain metals and mixtures of metals in order to create a "binded" final product that doesn't crumble like a sand castle. For instance currently stainless steel printed parts are mixed with bronze to provide binding, though the bronze is eliminated when the part is finish treated. porosity is left behind, like cockerpunk mentioned earlier. Options surrounding these limits should improve in time.

At school I like to use this as an example...

(permalink - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQ-aWFYT_SU)
That video is pretty old, hell Z Corp is gone now after being acquired and their product line merged with another. But the video is a classic since it was a huge PR thing that was broadcast on some news stations so it was probably many people's first view of the tech. Making an adjustable wrench is probably the defacto 3d printer demonstration piece since it has multiple components that all get integrated together with gaps between, and is a "functional" part right out of the machine.

Then again it's only a non-useful weird plastic wrench, or at best a brittle cast wrench if made on an SLS machine. But I fantasize...years from now, what would things be like if you could print your own cast steel wrenches like that, instead of using a forged wrench like what we have right now? The forged one would be much more resilient. but if you could push a button and have replacements made with cost of raw materials and your utilities, would the need for long-lasting drop forged parts decrease?
I guess it depends on how the tool would be used. Removing rusty lag bolts that have been seized up under a lock washer...printed tool probably not the best choice. But making a quick adjustment on a low-force wrench flat, or working on properly-maintained equipment, hmm more useful.

Not a perfect example to discuss since right now parts are made cheaply and effectively, you can buy a high quality drop forged adjustable for like $16. but it's still a thing you have to buy at a store and whatnot. Maybe this is a discussion about our potential for laziness and the prevalence of mail-order purchases more than anything else

[Davros]

cockerpunk: Despite my belief that the insult was unnecessary, I have to agree that sounding definitive about predictions is bad and should have said it was a logical guess based on the history of other technologies not "we will" and not the tone of "surely". BTW, they are writers from the past who have made correct predictions about people living a century in their future such Jules Verne in a story his publisher would not accept because it was too fantastical. (It was published in 1994.)

[cockerpunk]

cockerpunk: Despite my belief that the insult was unnecessary, I have to agree that sounding definitive about predictions is bad and should have said it was a logical guess based on the history of other technologies not "we will" and not the tone of "surely". BTW, they are writers from the past who have made correct predictions about people living a century in their future such Jules Verne in a story his publisher would not accept because it was too fantastical. (It was published in 1994.)

i was not trying to insult you, i was putting bounds on my predictions. in 100 years, its pretty much impossible to guess what 3d printing will be like.

who 100 years ago, could imagine a computer in your pocket? no one really truly predicted the PC, much less then computers we carry around in our pockets, mistakenly calling "phones"

[ubooze]

Yea, I'm going to have to agree with Davros and say that came off as a rather snide remark. But I guess it's alright since a lot of brilliant/technical people have a hard time interacting with people normally.

While I can't really see 3D printing becoming a common practice in the average household, I do think it has incredible potential from the manufacturing standpoint. The fact that you can make incredibly complex and efficient shapes with basically no need for specialized tooling or little waste material is pretty incredible if you think about it. You just plug a file into your machine and it creates in one operation the exact part/assembly using the exact amount of raw material needed. The tech might not be there right now but it'll get there soon enough.

Clearly, like you guys have pointed out, this is just going to have to be another tool or method for production. It clearly won't make sense for ALL manufacturing but it can have some incredible benefits for much of it.

The Drive channel on Youtube has a series going on right now that chronicles in part Koenigsegg's construction of the One:1 car. In it they show some of the titanium parts such as the exhaust piece or variable turbo parts they are doing for the cars. With such a limited run, the current cost of 3D components is justified. I can imagine how awesome it would be if PE or Inception did some truly limited run of guns(in the 10s of pieces) in titanium or aluminum. No concerns for existing raw body limitations just pure, beautiful, and exciting designs.

Again, on the flipside, there is so much effort being placed into making approachable 3D printing systems and modeling platforms that future well-off masses may opt to print their next desk caddy or flower vase rather than heading out to IKEA or Target. The opportunity to make something that fits your exact dimensions and theme on demand has huge potential for mass adoption. Maybe it won't be a 3D printer in each home, but Shapeways or Amazon may be the next supplier of on demand goods with same-day delivery.

As for using a Leap Motion for CAD work, I could imagine that would be incredibly irritating. I can't really see this doing anything that Spacepilot doesn't do already. Maybe this will work wonderfully in a proofing or collaborative environment but I can't see 50 people sitting in cubicles with VR headsets waving their hands in front of them being very beneficial to the design or engineering process.

Also, Elon Musk is my current man crush. No homo.

[cockerpunk]

But I guess it's alright since a lot of brilliant/technical people have a hard time interacting with people normally.

worst subtle burn ever

[ubooze]

You were quick to pick up on that. Surprising, seeing how subtly has never been your strong suit.

[Davros]

"But I guess it's alright since a lot of brilliant/technical people have a hard time interacting with people normally."

I am going to pretend that was directed at me so I can conclude someone called me brilliant. Because I have no doubt everyone here, including Cockerpunk, is better than I at interacting with people normally.

Cockerpunk: Thanks for clearing that up. Although history can let us make good guesses about the future, there are many, many things in technology today that no one, including me of course, would have predicted even 10 years ago.