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Thread: Future of CAD/CAM/Manufacturing?

  1. #21
    do you seriously think that 3D printing of "home goods" will really get to a point where the laymen can cheaper and easier print something ... then buy its higher quality mass produced counterpart? how many mixing spoons of shitty quality do you really need?

    i doubt this very much. materials, processing, quality, and expense will almost always side with typical mass production methods. and then, for the things that is is comparable to, like perhaps a mixing spoon or something, is it worth having the learn how to run, and equip and maintain a machine in your house (if you arn't a huge nerd like us)?

    not buying it.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  2. #22
    Insider HipboyScott's Avatar
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    I think you're right about the reasonings and limiting factors... machining is not easy or intuitive at times, and despite having a lot of hours behind a manual bridgeport mill, for someone who doesn't make it their trade at least, the CNC world is still very confusing to me, yet alluring all the same. But I really don't see why a computer can't, in some time with enough well-written code in the software, figure out the optimal paths and processes for machining. It can't now, you'd get garbage. But soon enough it'll be streamlined to the point where a big market opens up that can handle some education and responsibility for the parts without having to really devote themselves to being a guru.

    The target market is really destined for the makers... the people who want to produce small things for some personal or hobby use, but also want new equipment to help them start their small cottage industry, perhaps making replacement parts for old cars or niche adapters like Simon's go-pro mounts for paintball, or the Pico hopper... or make a living off of fabricating crowdfunded parts that they designed last week. These people already are out there doing what they will do, and they just want to expand their capacity with the new technology that we have today, but aren't interested in making 'CNC construction and operation' a hobby or lifestyle... just a small business. It's beyond their scope to have a shop with $30k worth of 'real' tools, they need stuff that will fit into a 2-car garage or a partial rented space in Brooklyn. There are physical limitations to how much rigidity you can get in a machine while only spending $3-5000 in metal and parts, but they can work with those limitations and the machines can too if they are designed well.

    It's about the artists and designers who have been stuck outsourcing almost everything taking back the ability to make in the modern age, and they're going to do it eventually.

    As you say the 3D printer thing takes off now as a 'home product' because it eliminates a lot of the factors that make it hard to make and build a CNC: rigidity requirements are minimal, the actual 'work' is very simple to a computer, there's no tool wear or part locating issues to worry about. As long as the bed is level and the part sticks, it's good.

    But it must only be a matter of time when you can model up a cool new paintgun body or grip, throw it into an analysis environment of your program that breaks down the design, and figures out a streamlined method of cutting it based on a library of given bits, methods, etc that you have for your machine... and then maybe it builds up a rough body from fusing aluminum pellets into a form, before going in and finishing and boring it out to look great. Maybe as easy as swapping from a 1/8 cutter to a drill bit, a given machine can go from cutting to adding. IT also means you could machine and work surfaces that are completely inaccesible otherwise, as your bot can swap back and forth between adding and subtracting material.

    And sure, maybe the user has some input during the process to choose surfaces and processes for features, clear up any confusion, and in general optimize the part to meet their design intent. But it's not like it's hard when everything is running virtually and you can track what's going on and 'figure out' how it works after a few days of screwing in the virtual environment.

    Like, I don't expect it now, or even 5 years. But by around 2025 I am betting dollars to donuts I'll be able to have a reasonably priced machine (lets say $10k) in my shop that reads files from a program on my office computer that takes my crazy models from CAD and then just churns them out in materials ranging from synthetic wood to ABS to aluminum to titanium. Maybe I want to make molds for my small injection molder? No problem... I'll have 'em by tomorrow morning.

    Is that consumer level? I dunno. But for people making businesses out of 'making' that's the obvious direction the movement is headed, and someone, probably a company like Makerbot, if they value relevancy, is going to invest big boy dollars into streamlining the process of fabrication for the maker.

    Even if it starts with a service like Shapeways or Protomold... where banks and banks of these machines sit in formation, an army of automation pumping out random objects from all over the internet that are being designed around the world... it won't be long before that translates down to consumer level.

    In fact if Elon Musk isn't pouring SpaceX and Tesla money into such technology, I'd be very surprised.

    It's within enough time that we can start planning for it.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by HipboyScott View Post
    I think you're right about the reasonings and limiting factors... machining is not easy or intuitive at times, and despite having a lot of hours behind a manual bridgeport mill, for someone who doesn't make it their trade at least, the CNC world is still very confusing to me, yet alluring all the same. But I really don't see why a computer can't, in some time with enough well-written code in the software, figure out the optimal paths and processes for machining. It can't now, you'd get garbage. But soon enough it'll be streamlined to the point where a big market opens up that can handle some education and responsibility for the parts without having to really devote themselves to being a guru.

    The target market is really destined for the makers... the people who want to produce small things for some personal or hobby use, but also want new equipment to help them start their small cottage industry, perhaps making replacement parts for old cars or niche adapters like Simon's go-pro mounts for paintball, or the Pico hopper... or make a living off of fabricating crowdfunded parts that they designed last week. These people already are out there doing what they will do, and they just want to expand their capacity with the new technology that we have today, but aren't interested in making 'CNC construction and operation' a hobby or lifestyle... just a small business. It's beyond their scope to have a shop with $30k worth of 'real' tools, they need stuff that will fit into a 2-car garage or a partial rented space in Brooklyn. There are physical limitations to how much rigidity you can get in a machine while only spending $3-5000 in metal and parts, but they can work with those limitations and the machines can too if they are designed well.

    It's about the artists and designers who have been stuck outsourcing almost everything taking back the ability to make in the modern age, and they're going to do it eventually.

    As you say the 3D printer thing takes off now as a 'home product' because it eliminates a lot of the factors that make it hard to make and build a CNC: rigidity requirements are minimal, the actual 'work' is very simple to a computer, there's no tool wear or part locating issues to worry about. As long as the bed is level and the part sticks, it's good.

    But it must only be a matter of time when you can model up a cool new paintgun body or grip, throw it into an analysis environment of your program that breaks down the design, and figures out a streamlined method of cutting it based on a library of given bits, methods, etc that you have for your machine... and then maybe it builds up a rough body from fusing aluminum pellets into a form, before going in and finishing and boring it out to look great. Maybe as easy as swapping from a 1/8 cutter to a drill bit, a given machine can go from cutting to adding. IT also means you could machine and work surfaces that are completely inaccesible otherwise, as your bot can swap back and forth between adding and subtracting material.

    And sure, maybe the user has some input during the process to choose surfaces and processes for features, clear up any confusion, and in general optimize the part to meet their design intent. But it's not like it's hard when everything is running virtually and you can track what's going on and 'figure out' how it works after a few days of screwing in the virtual environment.

    Like, I don't expect it now, or even 5 years. But by around 2025 I am betting dollars to donuts I'll be able to have a reasonably priced machine (lets say $10k) in my shop that reads files from a program on my office computer that takes my crazy models from CAD and then just churns them out in materials ranging from synthetic wood to ABS to aluminum to titanium. Maybe I want to make molds for my small injection molder? No problem... I'll have 'em by tomorrow morning.

    Is that consumer level? I dunno. But for people making businesses out of 'making' that's the obvious direction the movement is headed, and someone, probably a company like Makerbot, if they value relevancy, is going to invest big boy dollars into streamlining the process of fabrication for the maker.

    Even if it starts with a service like Shapeways or Protomold... where banks and banks of these machines sit in formation, an army of automation pumping out random objects from all over the internet that are being designed around the world... it won't be long before that translates down to consumer level.

    In fact if Elon Musk isn't pouring SpaceX and Tesla money into such technology, I'd be very surprised.

    It's within enough time that we can start planning for it.
    first post:

    Quote Originally Posted by cockerpunk View Post
    it has its place, and for some medium scale, and low quality applications, it will be used in production. but to replace machining, esp in high accuracy/surface finish applications? nope.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  4. #24
    Insider Ydna's Avatar
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    It wouldn't be realistic to say it'll replace mass production type stuff, but I believe there's a huge untapped market of people that would love to get into fabrication but simply don't have the drive, money, aptitude, intelligence, or whatever required to actually do it. 3d printing solves oh so many of those issues, the only thing that pisses me off about them is how long they take and the chance for printing failure. yeah there's surface finish issues and relative accuracy issues but all of that isn't always right out in the open, I don't think it would turn people off that much. Varies from technology to technology anyway (STL versus FDM, etc)

    Not everybody would venture down that road of using it to "replace" an existing production method, and of course there's a steep technical learning curve beyond simply taking other people's files compared to making your own, like I was eluding with my mom. Hell, even I don't use any of mine to replace common household things, and I'm a damned junkie for the stuff, but I think I value my time more than the typical hobbyist.

    The question is how many people would be affected by the newfound accessible technology in a situation where they otherwise wouldn't explore it (mill/lathe/etc). I say it'll be quite a few just by going off the myriad of startups and such. But yeah in an emerging market only time will tell until it dies down...

  5. #25
    Insider HipboyScott's Avatar
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    The main thing is I don't give a shit about 3D printing itself... it's just a process that's currently easy to get some kind of result from that we can work around. In a few years it will probably be metal, and then years later it'll probably turn to molecules. In 5 years FDM will be like "lolwut? those hot-glue machines? we laser now" and then after that it'll be like "lol dude u laze stufftogetha? I be atom replicating n shit homie"

    But seriously tho, the end user doesn't want a 3D printer, or a CNC machine, or any specific tool: If they're in the market now for those types of tools it's simply because they want to make stuff and those tools are currently the best means to an end.

    And ultimately western consumers want more personal products, we want options and flexibility. We also don't have the money for those things always, so paying people to make it is limited. The romance and idea of a machine that does that for us, Star Trek style, is what we long for... and science will bring us closer in time.

    I picture someone like my 13 year old sister, being able to make cool toys that she's drawing up now. She's already taught herself photoshop and illustrator and various other programs, and has a wacom tablet. I have no doubt she could work in 3D if she decided to, and start churning out parts. But she'd quickly hit the same wall I have: services are expensive and learning to make it yourself is currently a whole process. Someone like her would love one of those new $400 nano printers for making things. It's enough jump to really start the seed for more.

    Mass production is a given and always has advantage of scale and size, can't compete with that from your basement. The point is breaking down the barrier to entry for individuals to design, prototype, fabricate, and sell niche products using more methods and precision and control that big industry has, whether it means waiting for it to trickle down or copying or stealing or open source-developing, those pioneers, Promethians, who will bring back fire from the gods for the rest of us... and I think that there is the exciting future of CAD/CAM and manufacturing in that journey to get there.
    Last edited by HipboyScott; 04-23-2014 at 09:41 PM.

  6. #26
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    More proof that Elon Musk IS THE REAL LIFE INCARNATION OF TONY STARK!

    As an Architect I can't wait for Occulus Rift or its competition from Sony to be mass market and compatible with 3d modeling software, be it Revit or SketchUp. For small part, or assemblies, I could see it being a hard sell as a tool... but for those of us that deal with space and movement (or ergonomics) I think it'll be an amazing tool.

  7. #27
    i think elon musk is more like telsa really.

    he makes crazy claims but every once in a while he follows through enough on one of them that you have to reconsider his claims, and go ... mmmmmmm

    10 years ago, who actually took him seriously when he said he was going to make a 300 mile range luxury electric car, and make it in California, and people would buy it? but he did. and he was just a quack from the internet back then.
    Last edited by cockerpunk; 04-28-2014 at 09:33 AM.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  8. #28
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    There was only 1 Tesla and the world wasn't ready for him then and barely understands him now.

  9. #29
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    I'm actually listening to the definitive Tesla book "Wizard" on tape now

  10. #30
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    What's a tape?

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