The OT thread V1

[vijil]

http://meleap.com/?lang=en

So it's crap (for now), but this tech will go places. The distinction between esports and real sports is suddenly getting a little blurry. I've been ranting tediously about this stuff for years but this is the first actual arSports competition I've come across.

Eventually the basic concept of AR gaming could be the biggest money sports on the planet, handled right. I'm a crazy who thinks that's practically inevitable, depending on the timeframe.

[pbjosh]

I'm a crazy who thinks that's practically inevitable, depending on the timeframe.

I agree it is an 'eventuality' and while it might be premature to pick the big players yet, it is worth investigating and keeping tabs on. Just looking at the huge cultural popularity of the Holodeck concept, and how much people love being able to interact with alternative realities, even in just a MOO, I agree it will happen.

The How just isn't so clear yet.

[ironyusa]

the physics of climate change has been well established for over 100 years:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awbF9K7BmhM

Thanks for posting this.

[Lurker27]

AR certainly seems like a shorter technical putt than any kind of physically immersive VR, mostly because even with trickery it's hard to solve the treadmill problem.

Needing a large physical space and lots of capital equipment somewhat constrains the upside growth potential. I call it "the paintball problem"

[cockerpunk]

Thanks for posting this.

i always like the go back to basics approach to arguing science.

we know c02 is the reason that our absorption spectrum has changed, because we can measure it directly
we know that carbon came from fossil fuels because we can carbon date it
we know the sun has not increased output over the same time because we measure it directly

it really is that simple. humans are warming the earth.

[ironyusa]

Occam's razor.

[vijil]

Needing a large physical space and lots of capital equipment somewhat constrains the upside growth potential. I call it "the paintball problem"

Paintball doesn't allow remote multiplayer, or playing on any random field that's big enough. There's so many advantages to a potential AR shooty sport that it's hard to list - basically it'll stomp paintball in every way that matters.

Eventually.

I wont put a date on it, but PB companies at least need some planning around eventualities happening now.

The real nasty fix-it-in-a-decade sticking points for AR are all to do with optics and light fields and occlusion, along with accurate outdoor 6dof tracking.

[PBSteve]

I wont put a date on it, but PB companies at least need some planning around eventualities happening now.

Color me severely unconvinced.

Impending technologies aside, shifting a paintball company to a software company is... kind of a bad idea. If you want to get into AR software, start over. They're completely different businesses.

If paintball dies, its industry will die with it. If there are eventualities to plan for it's shifting production to a different market.

[vijil]

I'm referring more to adapting, not necessarily moving sideways entirely. It's the sort of thing you do a SWOT or two on and shelve, but keep an eye on. Like with airsoft.

[pbjosh]

Needing a large physical space and lots of capital equipment somewhat constrains the upside growth potential. I call it "the paintball problem"

Nah, Golf works. For $20 a head you can walk around 100 acres with a $2500 bag of clubs and take 4-10 hours in a day to do it and barely be within shot range of a paintball gun most of the time. Right in town and areas with higher cost per acre. Paintball is lower overhead than that.

The problem with PB is most of the demographic is 16-24, and brokeish, and most of the Golfers are at a far better place economically. And Golf is established, so they look at a field as a 30 year investment and can get solid backers, where as most people's experience is a small backyard field that the original budget is a tax return or two, or a poorly run side business. Golf uses far more space generally per person, and take in significantly less per head per acre. Though, they also have drink carts.

That being said, the AR requirement can fit the Golf model for outdoor, in fact it can be significantly cheaper I suspect, since you can pack more people in a few acres to pretend to be WOW characters and fight AR dragons. Indoor, AR could do better than a Gymnastics building. It is $150 to $225 to rent a huge gymnasium for a birthday party where a dozen kids run around in a padded room. You could put 30 to 40 adults in the same area with padded swords pretending they are lightsabers for $20 a head per hour for significantly more profit per hour. Shoot, the little 7D rides and even the Ferris wheel next door to us in Pigeon Forge are $15-$20 to get through, and they are lame compared to AR.

The demographic for AR have higher paying jobs, and would cover a larger age range 10-50yo, who have a decent amount of disposable income, and birthday parties would be a big hit. Just look at the simple popularity of Pokemon Go, the lightest AR possible. It was a huge, for a limited time. If AR can be done in a cleared out Garage or spare room, a backyard or a spare chunk of cleared land and WiFi linked to a solid computer, I think it can beat the PB model in many ways. If linked, well, it might be closer to Ready Player 1 than we want to admit. If you don't need a specific AR field to go play at, cost to get in might be a $1500 setup but after that it is just buying software and some prop upgrades. How many people drop that on video games?

Impending technologies aside, shifting a paintball company to a software company is... kind of a bad idea. If you want to get into AR software, start over. They're completely different businesses.

I agree with Steve on this.

As for paintball crossing over - I see it as two different industries for the most part. Paintball has mostly machined gear that actually has to fire something, clothing, paint. Nothing really transfers over, short of maybe clothing. 90% of what would make decent AR work is headgear, injected plastic props with IoT, and lots of sexy software.

Though, inflatable bunkers and AR? Huge potential there.

What PB should try and do, in my opinion, is work to end up more like a video game. After challenges and courses that work like a FPS, work to give you a $20 ride type of experience. Thousands of people do the Zombie Hunt paintball courses, and that is it, because they still like the 'real' feel of it. Updating the game so it feels more like a video game, and I think you would have the best way to compete with AR. Or even augment the game. Adding AR to PB can result in the Video Game feel (maps, tracking, building in upgrades that give you semi-auto or related) and that would give you a hybrid that can feel incredibly real, yet far more.