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Thread: The OT thread V1

  1. #3911
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    The Camaro is engineered to be second best in the GM stable, and therefore there is no point to it.

    Bingo on the Tesla, Gordo, but even beyond that that car market as we conceive of it isn't going to exist in 10 years.

    I feel like Vijil talking about AR gaming and paintball :P
    "So you've done this before?"
    "Oh, hell no. But I think it's gonna work."

  2. #3912
    Insider Unfated33's Avatar
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    I'm really curious about where the car tipping point will be. Like, when do gas stations start to disappear? Is it at 30% EV / 70% ICE, or will the number need to get higher than that?

  3. #3913
    the average car in america is about 10 years old (BTS stats). that means cars have a half life of around that.

    Its going to take longer than 10 years, even accounting to take rate going up to 30-50% in the next 10 years to start seeing the needle move big time.

    while i agree the revolution in full swing, revolutions take longer when they are 50k products (average new car transaction price is upper 20s right now) rather than 600 dollar cell phones.

    we wont see gas stations dying off until consumption drops, and it rises around 2% per year, even accounting for EVs.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  4. #3914
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    It's more about the rate at which mobility services displace new car sales, IMO. That's the big carrot.

    Related, though:

    https://jalopnik.com/the-fascinating...pla-1829257860
    "So you've done this before?"
    "Oh, hell no. But I think it's gonna work."

  5. #3915
    Quote Originally Posted by Lurker27 View Post
    It's more about the rate at which mobility services displace new car sales, IMO. That's the big carrot.

    Related, though:

    https://jalopnik.com/the-fascinating...pla-1829257860
    that will take even longer to change though, because its an infrastructure problem, not a car problem. as millennials urbanize and change the landscape of how people move (and they are), car ownership will utterly die off. but that will take 30+ years.

    mobility services will remain pretty exculsively for the rich for more than a decade too ... there is no getting around the cost of all of those new cars they will need to buy. that cost doesn't just disappear cause we are all sharing now.
    Last edited by cockerpunk; 07-10-2019 at 05:00 PM.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  6. #3916
    This run was insane, but man was he looking a bit squirrely the whole time. Wing clipped the hay bales once or twice haha.


    Too bad they don't let modern F1 cars run, would love to see how much faster they

  7. #3917
    Insider PBSteve's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cockerpunk View Post
    that will take even longer to change though, because its an infrastructure problem, not a car problem. as millennials urbanize and change the landscape of how people move (and they are), car ownership will utterly die off. but that will take 30+ years.
    I'm kind of curious to see how far this really goes though, I think older millennials are already starting to move to the suburbs.

    I'm also feeling curious about the state of EV drivetrains, those are a solved problem right? I feel like they should be a pretty thoroughly solved problem, but I don't actually know for sure.
    I work for the company building the Paragon...once we figure out a name

  8. #3918
    Insider new ion?'s Avatar
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    Electric motor tech hasn't really changed much lately, so I guess so. There's various trade-offs to the different motor styles, so you'll see the different EVs have different motors based on the engineering design goals weighting. In turn, this means various motor drives.

    Ie Tesla Model 3's use Switched Reluctance DC Motors, Nissan Leaf's use Synchronous AC, Tesla Model S/X (early ones at least, I think they've changed to SRMs now) use AC Induction... Chevy Bolt is a PMDC.

  9. #3919
    Quote Originally Posted by fullofpaint View Post
    This run was insane, but man was he looking a bit squirrely the whole time. Wing clipped the hay bales once or twice haha.


    Too bad they don't let modern F1 cars run, would love to see how much faster they
    the fastest lap you ever run is also the closest to death that you will be.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  10. #3920
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    A hot swappable battery or capacitor system is going to be required to really take EV's to the top. Unless charging systems can become as fast as filling the gas tank.

    I don't know that I buy into EVs completely displacing IC vehicles in the US... Until an EV can go 8 hours at freeway speed at least. 'Mericans love us some free range road tripping.
    Draws houses, doesn't own markers that aren't single tube designs, unapologetic AGD zealot.

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