The OT thread V1

[Lurker27]

@Vijil - To me this illustrates a sort of divide within paintball that hasn't been addressed very well, overall.

"Speedball" has a lot of potential as a legitimate sport, but our feeder system at the bottom is broken (no lessons, no logical progression from beginner to "open play" to team based tournament/league play). I've written before about how to fix this issue. I think AR is less important a threat to this aspect of paintball, because all sports have arbitrary distinctions/limits. Information systems, organization, and a compelling format are the key things to develop here.

Where AR and VR will be king is in the milspec side of things. Paintball players who want to "snipe" or be an operative on a mission are going to have a much better and more immersive experience with these technologies, period. There will also be "adrenaline dump" moments, but ultimately the variety of AR/VR is going to be what limits it as a threat to paintball at large.

[vijil]

ultimately the variety of AR/VR is going to be what limits it as a threat to paintball at large

I agree that paintball has a terrible feeder system. As I've said before I also agree that the gametypes used in speedball leave much to be desired.

I still think AR wins even vs tournament paintball. You could build an AR simulation of tournament paintball which worked better for pro competition than actual tournament paintball. While still having the pain and the balls flying with their arcs and 300fps (virtually) and players being marked when hit and everything. Use regular supair bunkers too, or have virtual ones with automated penalties for running through them - whatever works. AR gear will become ubiquitous in time, meaning any kid can find a flat field and train or play with and vs other kids in other fields. You don't even have to be in the same location. The sky's the limit.

And of course wiping, playing on and bad ref calls are removed, the costs become primarily upfront and rapidly drop like any other sport rather than using consumables, and advanced objectives, multiple hit health bars etc. are all possible and practical from a gameplay perspective. Camera placement, stats tracking, virtual overlays and the whole watching experience in general also gets a whole lot easier. Stat tracking especially becomes completely automated.

Heck probably 90% of what currently has to be done by admin people in paintball can suddenly be automated, and more reliably. A properly developed tournament AR format would leave speedball in the dust. The only question is who gets there first.

[ironyusa]

And what kind timeline are you guys forecasting? 20+ years?

[vijil]

Dunno. 5-10 seems reasonable. 20+ years ago the internet barely existed, and the R&D effort going into VR and AR right now is beyond huge.

Of course it all depends on priorities. If someone wants to set up a competitive AR format and has the VC it'll happen sooner than later. If folks are happy to use it for regular gaming and there's no will, it'll take forever/never.

Tech wont be an issue for long in any case.

[PBSteve]

The only market for VR tournament paintball would be tournament paintball players. Normal people will just play CoD. Kind of adds a weird twist to the market dynamic.

[Lurker27]

I am very convinced paintball only needs to reach some level of competence to indefinitely stave off any augmented reality threat in a tournament setting. I think the hurdles to real authenticity are a lot bigger than you're selling. As Steve alludes to, a competently rub paintball scene would make it much less attractive market share.

Paintball is a fucking mess right now, so it's an easier road to hoe to supercede it.

[vijil]

In the short term I agree lurker. I'm just not convinced that paintball will ever get there. Too much BS.

I was using the virtual paintball thing only as proof that AR can supercede paintball, because it can do everything paintball can only better. The only two real technical barriers are 1: lag, which is rapidly improving and 2: the vergence accomodation problem*, which hasn't been fixed but the tech is in the pipeline.

Actual competition would be whatever it ends up being. Probably something resembling, say, Overwatch. Or UT's Bombing Run. Or something. The market is essentially the same in both cases - teenage to twentysomething guys who like gaming/paintball/airsoft/thatsortofthing. That means fairly direct competition with paintball for people's time, and if AR ends up offering more and better than paintball can (which I'm saying is inevitable) then paintball will become progressively more niche. It'll probably never completely die though. Us old fellas will still be around to talk about the good old days

* Why fake 3D stuff gives you a headache:

[cockerpunk]

I am very convinced paintball only needs to reach some level of competence to indefinitely stave off any augmented reality threat in a tournament setting. I think the hurdles to real authenticity are a lot bigger than you're selling. As Steve alludes to, a competently rub paintball scene would make it much less attractive market share.

Paintball is a fucking mess right now, so it's an easier road to hoe to supercede it.

sim racing has never been a real threat to real racing. in fact, its been a huge boon to real racing.

in action sports, the fun is in actually doing it. like being there, at that moment, for real. i agree that paintball is safe from VR for now. the only real danger i see, and i do see this coming ... when doing this virtually is as "real" as doing them for real. no i dont mean the physics, or the mechanics etc, i mean the culture. when winning a race on a sim is considered equal or greater than winning a race in real life ... that will be when VR is a threat to literally everything "real" in the world (not just paintball. everything from sex to playing professional sports ... will be over.

[vijil]

sim racing has never been a real threat to real racing. in fact, its been a huge boon to real racing.

Paintball may be safe from sitting in your room style VR, yes.

It's not safe from AR, or full environmental overlaid VR (still effectively AR) as in the video I linked.

when winning a race on a sim is considered equal or greater than winning a race in real life ...

Analogy doesn't work. Paintball is seen as a simulation by most folks. CS:GO is pulling $18M prize pools, being arguably the closest virtual alternative to paintball with a pro league. So in this regard even if your analogy works the virtual version is already seen as significantly greater.

[cockerpunk]

Paintball may be safe from sitting in your room style VR, yes.

It's not safe from AR, or full environmental overlaid VR (still effectively AR) as in the video I linked.



Analogy doesn't work. Paintball is seen as a simulation by most folks. CS:GO is pulling $18M prize pools, being arguably the closest virtual alternative to paintball with a pro league. So in this regard even if your analogy works the virtual version is already seen as significantly greater.

paintball is not seen as a simulation by the people who actually play it. well, the folks who are any good at it anyway. the folks who consider it a simulation are lurkers above mention milsimers. they are for the most part dying off anyway, self selecting airsoft or videogames.