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Thread: OT: Politics

  1. #541
    Quote Originally Posted by PBSteve View Post
    So in case anyone missed it, we're going to be borrowing $1 Trillion to pay for the tax cuts this year.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.6d74d2c98f49

    When the economy is doing well, when we could afford to be paying down the federal debt, we've decided to increase the deficit by 84%.

    Party of fiscal responsibility my ass.
    why do we take republicans seriously on literally anything, ever?

    turning there party over to trump has made a mockery of anything and everything they ever stood for.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  2. #542
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    While I agree that the GOP has abandoned their fiscal responsibility side due to GWB, then hence, Trumps cut is $1T more debt over 10 years. Where as BHO put us in debt over $1T every year of his presidency. His debt production is about 11 to 12 times as bad, over an order of magnitude.

    It seems only like a criticism to criticize, vs actually caring about the debt. The GOP lost a lot of their credibility with their own voters for becoming the big spenders they were during GWB, and it is a reason most of the Right feel poorly served by them. Now that their might be less that 1/10th more debt added the Left keeps passing out memes and pointing fingers and screaming "oh noes the debt!" - color me unimpressed with this new 'turn' of fiscal responsibility the Left has. It passes as false.

    Neither party cares, except to bash the other. Well, Paul Ryan and Rand Paul do. Not so much the majority of the remaining of either party.

  3. #543
    Josh,

    It's not a comparable period. The economy crashed causing people to lose their jobs, profits to go down, etc., etc. All that contributed to lower government revenues hence causing the deficit to spike. The government during Obama's tenure rightly attempted to fill the gaps caused by recession to cut taxes and increase spending to get the economy back on its feet. Economists are split on whether they spent enough and recently the IMF came out and said its deficit measures imposed on struggling countries actually caused greater harm than good. I think it's a fair point to make that the Republicans made a bad situation much worse with this tax bill. What happens when the next downturn happens? We have less room to maneuver fiscally when the government needs to fill gaps again.

    I'll add that Obama sought to increase government revenues through raising taxes and was willing negotiate on reformulating the social benefits programs which primarily benefit older Americans (medicare/social security). You can criticize Obama on his negotiating tactics with Boehner but he did make an attempt.

  4. #544
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    Debt is debt though - you can say the grounding economy was a factor, but the debt still is a debt. Why is not an issue, there was a choice to really tighten down and weather it, or spending and increase it. Even if Krugman says Debt is Good. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/.../pau...e-economy.html

    The problem is one of competing theories, and the answer came from Obama's own adviser, Christina Romer. http://www.nber.org/digest/mar08/w13264.html

    Tax changes that are made to promote long-run growth, or to reduce an inherited budget deficit, in contrast, are undertaken for reasons essentially unrelated to other factors influencing output. Thus, examining the behavior of output following these relatively exogenous tax changes is likely to provide more reliable estimates of the output effects of tax changes. The results of this more reliable test indicate that tax changes have very large effects: an exogenous tax increase of 1 percent of GDP lowers real GDP by roughly 2 to 3 percent.
    The long and short is every increase in tax dollars results in a decrease of the total GDP. For every tax dollar you take out, you remove 3 from the GDP.

    Increases in Tax only increases windfalls in the short term, but result in long term reduction in the GDP. Where as reduction of taxes results in short term falls, but long term increases. While it looks like a short term reduction in income, in the 3 previous large tax reductions (1920, JFK, Reagan) the result has always a long term increase in taxes. https://www.heritage.org/taxes/repor...nges-tax-rates

    The problem is spending. Not in revenue collection or tax rates. The US just received the largest amount of taxes ever on record. But the shortfall is still large. Why is it large?

    We are spending too much. The biggest flaw in Trump is not his tax plan. It makes sense over the long run. He is just making the same mistake as Reagan. The problem with Reagan is that during the recovery from his tax cuts is they increased the spending, anticipating the higher returns. And they got those returns. Trump seems like he will also.

    During the SoTU? Big spending, across the board.

    I think the tax cuts are great and will do a lot, long term, to increase the GDP and help the country out. But if they don't take on spending, it will be all for naught. So we will see. The biggest problem is congress is in control of other people's money. They are not spending theirs. It is like any household not on a budget. They spend more than they have, run up debt, and figure they will pay it later. Well, even at Obama's level, we were slated for the debt to expand to 20% of the budget by 2030. Blaming either party isn't an issue. It is really down to us, deciding we need them to reign in spending.

    A few charts to look at: https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/past_spending

    As you can see, the budget problem is mostly healthcare. It is our biggest line item in our national budget, covering 25% of it in total at the moment. Full US spending is almost $3.6B.

    In fact, here is the kicker: http://www.kenflerlage.com/2016/09/i...al-budget.html

    Breaking down by president, GWB had the largest increase in spending. I would be fine if we could reign it down to Clinton budget levels. Adjusted for inflation, against the 2016 budget of $4T, the Clinton budget would be $2.5T. While tax revenue did also increase, it didn't keep up with the spending.

    As cap: Raising taxes only increases revenue short term. Raising taxes hurts long term growth. Spending is the problem. GWB didn't do anything about it, he was the worst offender, and BHO wasn't any better at fixing the problem, nor stimulating the economy with GWB's bad ARRA. They both are bad at the economy and budget, no matter what olive branches might have been handed out or party to blame.
    Last edited by pbjosh; 02-05-2018 at 05:43 PM.
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  5. #545
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Debt is debt though - you can say the grounding economy was a factor, but the debt still is a debt. Why is not an issue, there was a choice to really tighten down and weather it, or spending and increase it. Even if Krugman says Debt is Good. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/.../pau...e-economy.html

    The problem is one of competing theories, and the answer came from Obama's own adviser, Christina Romer. http://www.nber.org/digest/mar08/w13264.html



    The long and short is every increase in tax dollars results in a decrease of the total GDP. For every tax dollar you take out, you remove 3 from the GDP.

    Increases in Tax only increases windfalls in the short term, but result in long term reduction in the GDP. Where as reduction of taxes results in short term falls, but long term increases. While it looks like a short term reduction in income, in the 3 previous large tax reductions (1920, JFK, Reagan) the result has always a long term increase in taxes. https://www.heritage.org/taxes/repor...nges-tax-rates

    The problem is spending. Not in revenue collection or tax rates. The US just received the largest amount of taxes ever on record. But the shortfall is still large. Why is it large?

    We are spending too much. The biggest flaw in Trump is not his tax plan. It makes sense over the long run. He is just making the same mistake as Reagan. The problem with Reagan is that during the recovery from his tax cuts is they increased the spending, anticipating the higher returns. And they got those returns. Trump seems like he will also.

    During the SoTU? Big spending, across the board.

    I think the tax cuts are great and will do a lot, long term, to increase the GDP and help the country out. But if they don't take on spending, it will be all for naught. So we will see. The biggest problem is congress is in control of other people's money. They are not spending theirs. It is like any household not on a budget. They spend more than they have, run up debt, and figure they will pay it later. Well, even at Obama's level, we were slated for the debt to expand to 20% of the budget by 2030. Blaming either party isn't an issue. It is really down to us, deciding we need them to reign in spending.

    A few charts to look at: https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/past_spending

    As you can see, the budget problem is mostly healthcare. It is our biggest line item in our national budget, covering 25% of it in total at the moment. Full US spending is almost $3.6B.

    In fact, here is the kicker: http://www.kenflerlage.com/2016/09/i...al-budget.html

    Breaking down by president, GWB had the largest increase in spending. I would be fine if we could reign it down to Clinton budget levels. Adjusted for inflation, against the 2016 budget of $4T, the Clinton budget would be $2.5T. While tax revenue did also increase, it didn't keep up with the spending.

    As cap: Raising taxes only increases revenue short term. Raising taxes hurts long term growth. Spending is the problem. GWB didn't do anything about it, he was the worst offender, and BHO wasn't any better at fixing the problem, nor stimulating the economy with GWB's bad ARRA. They both are bad at the economy and budget, no matter what olive branches might have been handed out or party to blame.
    That paper doesn't say exactly what you say it means. It says an "exogenous tax increase" - i.e. taxes designed to reduce the deficit or promote long-term growth. If it was a "endogenous" tax increase - to counteract a recession or inflationary period or to match changes in government spending it did not have the same impact. It also acknowledges that deficit-driven tax increases might actually grow GDP over time by reducing long-term interest rates or giving businesses confidence in the future of the economy.

    I'll definitely agree on reigning in spending, but I see that more as a function of efficiency (not being able to negotiate drug prices, etc.) rather than having to reduce services.

  6. #546
    Insider PBSteve's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    The problem with Reagan is that during the recovery from his tax cuts is they increased the spending, anticipating the higher returns. And they got those returns. Trump seems like he will also.
    How'd that work out for Bush II?

    I see no evidence adequate returns are coming, and you can Google any number of Reagan's former advisors who are saying as much. The economy is not in remotely the same position it was in 1980.
    Ever so many citizens of this republic think they ought to believe that the Universe is a monarchy, and therefore they are always at odds with the republic. -Alan Watts

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  7. #547
    Insider PBSteve's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Debt is debt though - you can say the grounding economy was a factor, but the debt still is a debt. Why is not an issue
    And no, as with most things context, nuance, and details matter.

    To believe otherwise is dogmatic.
    Ever so many citizens of this republic think they ought to believe that the Universe is a monarchy, and therefore they are always at odds with the republic. -Alan Watts

    I work for the company building the Paragon

  8. #548
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    For anthropogenic climate change sceptics, I am a bit curious how we can dismiss our responsibility for this one:

    https://www.ted.com/talks/triona_mcg...script#t-53755

  9. #549
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    While I agree that the GOP has abandoned their fiscal responsibility side due to GWB, then hence, Trumps cut is $1T more debt over 10 years. Where as BHO put us in debt over $1T every year of his presidency. His debt production is about 11 to 12 times as bad, over an order of magnitude.

    It seems only like a criticism to criticize, vs actually caring about the debt. The GOP lost a lot of their credibility with their own voters for becoming the big spenders they were during GWB, and it is a reason most of the Right feel poorly served by them. Now that their might be less that 1/10th more debt added the Left keeps passing out memes and pointing fingers and screaming "oh noes the debt!" - color me unimpressed with this new 'turn' of fiscal responsibility the Left has. It passes as false.

    Neither party cares, except to bash the other. Well, Paul Ryan and Rand Paul do. Not so much the majority of the remaining of either party.
    isn't it republicans who always say (stupidly) we should run the budget like a household one?

    ie, when the economy is good, you put money in the bank.

    and when the economy sucks, you run a deficit.

    so, what do republicans do? run a massive deficit when the economy is good, and run a pretty bad deficit when the economy is bad. because never miss an opportunity to fuck poor people.
    Last edited by cockerpunk; 02-06-2018 at 09:33 AM.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  10. #550
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Debt is debt though - you can say the grounding economy was a factor, but the debt still is a debt. Why is not an issue, there was a choice to really tighten down and weather it, or spending and increase it. Even if Krugman says Debt is Good. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/.../pau...e-economy.html

    The problem is one of competing theories, and the answer came from Obama's own adviser, Christina Romer. http://www.nber.org/digest/mar08/w13264.html



    The long and short is every increase in tax dollars results in a decrease of the total GDP. For every tax dollar you take out, you remove 3 from the GDP.

    Increases in Tax only increases windfalls in the short term, but result in long term reduction in the GDP. Where as reduction of taxes results in short term falls, but long term increases. While it looks like a short term reduction in income, in the 3 previous large tax reductions (1920, JFK, Reagan) the result has always a long term increase in taxes. https://www.heritage.org/taxes/repor...nges-tax-rates

    The problem is spending. Not in revenue collection or tax rates. The US just received the largest amount of taxes ever on record. But the shortfall is still large. Why is it large?

    We are spending too much. The biggest flaw in Trump is not his tax plan. It makes sense over the long run. He is just making the same mistake as Reagan. The problem with Reagan is that during the recovery from his tax cuts is they increased the spending, anticipating the higher returns. And they got those returns. Trump seems like he will also.

    During the SoTU? Big spending, across the board.

    I think the tax cuts are great and will do a lot, long term, to increase the GDP and help the country out. But if they don't take on spending, it will be all for naught. So we will see. The biggest problem is congress is in control of other people's money. They are not spending theirs. It is like any household not on a budget. They spend more than they have, run up debt, and figure they will pay it later. Well, even at Obama's level, we were slated for the debt to expand to 20% of the budget by 2030. Blaming either party isn't an issue. It is really down to us, deciding we need them to reign in spending.

    A few charts to look at: https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/past_spending

    As you can see, the budget problem is mostly healthcare. It is our biggest line item in our national budget, covering 25% of it in total at the moment. Full US spending is almost $3.6B.

    In fact, here is the kicker: http://www.kenflerlage.com/2016/09/i...al-budget.html

    Breaking down by president, GWB had the largest increase in spending. I would be fine if we could reign it down to Clinton budget levels. Adjusted for inflation, against the 2016 budget of $4T, the Clinton budget would be $2.5T. While tax revenue did also increase, it didn't keep up with the spending.

    As cap: Raising taxes only increases revenue short term. Raising taxes hurts long term growth. Spending is the problem. GWB didn't do anything about it, he was the worst offender, and BHO wasn't any better at fixing the problem, nor stimulating the economy with GWB's bad ARRA. They both are bad at the economy and budget, no matter what olive branches might have been handed out or party to blame.
    never, in the history of ANY country, has a tax cut, increased revenues.

    it has literally never happened. its a republican pipe-dream.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

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