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Thread: OT: Politics

  1. #1491
    Quote Originally Posted by Lurker27 View Post
    That's not really fair - it's impossible to mechanistically account for the historical record of warming through TSI. The IPCC and Santer specifically have dedicated a lot of time to bracketing the TSI forcing to <0.2C within reason.

    Gordon's just needling you anyway by putting "TSI" in every post. The Santer paper you like says at least that the models are well tuned for the physics they incorporate (which includes TSI) based on historical backtesting, but need some additional external negative forcings to explain the underwarming trend (compared to model) of the last few years. If there's a real stabilizing mechanism that would be great, but if it's random and we haven't seen the "true warming in the pipeline" then the next 5-10 years will be rough.

    So there's certainly a degree of wait and see (obvious statement is obvious) but I don't think TSI is the right tree to bark up.
    it is since josh's argument is that the sun is driving climate change.

    if the sun has not changed output in 50 years, the sun isn't driving climate change.

    and the suns output hasn't changed. we know this, because we measure it. in fact, there is a case that to be made that the suns output has slightly decreased over this time period. its pretty marginal, so im fine saying the suns output has been flat.

    its quite clear that the sun isn't driving climate change. the earth changing is the reason. and the thing changing on the earth is its ability to re-radiate heat into space. and the reason for that is mid 1840's chemistry .... and increase in carbon gasses in the atmosphere causing it to absorb more long wave radiation.
    Last edited by cockerpunk; 11-28-2018 at 03:27 PM.
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  2. #1492
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    I don't really want to relitigate the entire AGW thing again.

    Josh is skeptical of CO2 being the primary driver of the change. Or, perhaps more concisely, that increases in CO2 drive up water vapor consistently to create an effective feedback of ~3.

    You then say, well what about the observed warming then???

    Josh then picks from a potpourri of explanations of varying falsifiability: the sun, clouds (possibly due to cosmic rays), decadal ocean or atmospheric processes, experimental measurement change/error.

    My point is that you're not going to convince him by saying the TSI is flat - even if that particular point is denied, another hydra head will spring up.

    This is why Steve and I like the Santer paper josh linked: https://pennstate.pure.elsevier.com/...pheric-warming

    Understood properly, it shows that any simplistic model error (e.g. CO2/H2O feedback being of the wrong magnitude) would not reproduce the historical record. It's a good confirmation of the positive hypothesis that CO2 is "in the driver's seat", as opposed to swatting individual arguments.
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  3. #1493
    Quote Originally Posted by Lurker27 View Post
    I don't really want to relitigate the entire AGW thing again.

    Josh is skeptical of CO2 being the primary driver of the change. Or, perhaps more concisely, that increases in CO2 drive up water vapor consistently to create an effective feedback of ~3.

    You then say, well what about the observed warming then???

    Josh then picks from a potpourri of explanations of varying falsifiability: the sun, clouds (possibly due to cosmic rays), decadal ocean or atmospheric processes, experimental measurement change/error.

    My point is that you're not going to convince him by saying the TSI is flat - even if that particular point is denied, another hydra head will spring up.

    This is why Steve and I like the Santer paper josh linked: https://pennstate.pure.elsevier.com/...pheric-warming

    Understood properly, it shows that any simplistic model error (e.g. CO2/H2O feedback being of the wrong magnitude) would not reproduce the historical record. It's a good confirmation of the positive hypothesis that CO2 is "in the driver's seat", as opposed to swatting individual arguments.
    he denied that the TSI was flat. i posted the graph, it was/is flat. he then said the graph showed it was increasing.

    thats why i keep bringing up the TSI. we can look at literally the same pixels and he can conclude the exact opposite thing from the truth.

    its a pretty common thing with josh, looking at the exact same words, graphs, etc and him claiming it means something it doesn't actually mean. just like him posting a paper that clearly says co2 is the driver, and concluding that it shows that the TSI has changed, and thus the sun could be the driver.
    Last edited by cockerpunk; 11-28-2018 at 05:23 PM.
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  4. #1494
    trump proposing the chicken tax on all cars: https://jalopnik.com/trump-wants-to-...e-c-1830715289

    amazed the party of capitalism has fallen so far so fast.
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  5. #1495
    Insider PBSteve's Avatar
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    Wonder how much that influenced Ford's decision to get out of the car game and only exist in a protected market.

  6. #1496
    yeah, i mean it highlights the fact that for whatever reason (and i don't believe its the quality of the small cars), the american car companies simply cannot compete without government help. the bread and butter of these companies simply comes for government making any import not cost competitive.

    what a sad state of affairs.


    in other news there is going to be an AWD pruis. and the bolt and the new kona hyundai are gonna destroy tesla in less than 5 years. RIP.
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  7. #1497
    Insider PBSteve's Avatar
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    I have no doubt someone will be here shortly to blame unions and environmental regulations.

  8. #1498
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    I don't think there's much overlap between Tesla buyers and Hyundai buyers. Tesla will face significant competition at every price point (see Audi ETron), and though they dominate that segment now, seeing a 3 or S is now an everyday occurence, so it's largely lost the specialness. People are still agog over "autopilot", which is mostly just Elon having the balls to kill people for a beta test.

    The real issue for tesla, GM, Ford, everyone...is Waymo.
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  9. #1499
    Quote Originally Posted by Lurker27 View Post
    I don't think there's much overlap between Tesla buyers and Hyundai buyers. Tesla will face significant competition at every price point (see Audi ETron), and though they dominate that segment now, seeing a 3 or S is now an everyday occurence, so it's largely lost the specialness. People are still agog over "autopilot", which is mostly just Elon having the balls to kill people for a beta test.

    The real issue for tesla, GM, Ford, everyone...is Waymo.
    no, what will destroy tesla is not a tesla competitor, but the fact that you can just buy a perfectly usable, everyday driving, electric car, for cheaper at every car lot in america.

    its the Prius versus gen1 honda insight battle. the prius won because it was a car that asked nothing other than to just give you 40% better mileage. not because it was the best hybrid, or even the highest fuel economy one. it won becuase it was simple, it was just a car, that car'ed better. the first gen insights are amazing, probably the coolest and best hybrid car ever made (as only honda can do), but it failed because it asked its owners to change how they lived there lives in order to get 75+ mpg.

    the death of tesla, will be the mainstream cars just becoming electric. which they are doing, and will be the norm in 5 years. when you can walk into the dealership and check the box for the electric one.
    Last edited by cockerpunk; 11-29-2018 at 02:23 PM.
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  10. #1500
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    You've described how electric cars will kill off gas cars at pricepoints that Tesla does not play in (currently). If you think the sole appeal of the Tesla has been the fact that "it's electric", I don't know what to tell you.

    Tesla started with a clean sheet design, instead of "checking the box for electric", which is a HUGE design disadvantage. The good ones, anyway, the original roadster was a laughable POS. Teslas are also explicitly disruptive - they had zero entrenched interest to protect by making the neutered ass iBullshit other companies roll out. I think you're vastly underrated some of the Tesla juice: performance, "cool factor", exclusivity, autopilot. Some of that can be cloned, but not all of it. Not immediately, anyway.

    Love an original honda insight series hybrid. People are retrofitting them to plug in hybrid with lithium cells now. There's also a 500hp k20 turbo one somewhere, since they're incredibly light.
    "So you've done this before?"
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