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Thread: OT: Politics

  1. #281
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    why? because TSI has been flat for the last 100 years, and the temp has not.
    This is where you are being obtuse. It has varied, and you quoted from me:

    TSI increased between 1900 and
    2000 by about 3 Wm-2 and was subject to major fluctuations in 1950-1980 [46,49].
    Similarly, it is variably estimated that during the Maunder Solar Minimum (1645-
    1715) of the Little Ice Age TSI may have been only 1.25 Wm-2 lower than at present
    [40,50,51,52] or by as much as 6 ± 3 Wm-2 lower than at present [39,41], reflecting a
    TSI increase ranging between 0.09% and 0.5%, respectively (fig. 2)
    That is not flat. It is a small change - but a change.

    none of them show a correlation between TSI and changes in temperature over the warming period in question.
    As posted in my above example graphs, the TSI and temperature do correlate. That is completely obvious.

    It is right there, in your face.

    You have such amazing cognitive dissonance it is really something to see.

    if you are such a climatologist...
    I have never made that claim. I just said I like to research, and I am a contrarian and general skeptic.
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  2. #282
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    This is where you are being obtuse. It has varied, and you quoted from me:



    That is not flat. It is a small change - but a change.



    As posted in my above example graphs, the TSI and temperature do correlate. That is completely obvious.

    It is right there, in your face.

    You have such amazing cognitive dissonance it is really something to see.



    I have never made that claim. I just said I like to research, and I am a contrarian and general skeptic.
    well, it doesn't matter, cause you lose.

    its actually amazing to google the TSI ... its so flat, and has been for so long that the 11 year solar cycle is the only noise on the signal. it really can't be more clear that the sun is not the current factor driving the climate currently.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  3. #283
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    TSI

    Flat Line



    Just to make sure you can see the difference.



    AND, you bring up the issue with GHCN adjusted vs Raw

    And historic records of the GHCN database.

    Here is the raw vs adjusted output from the GHCN v 3.2 'pausebuster' dataset.



    I can go to NASA and grab lots of locations, with their own data, showing this same adjustment. Even the raw numbers so you can see it.

    Here is one a reporter in Australia found:



    This is fairly rampant.

    With the Raw data, there is a correlation between TSI and temperature. Same with satellite data and TSI.

    In fact, here is TSI and the GHCN v2 correlation:



    Those who control the past do seem to control the present, eh?
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  4. #284
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post


    TSI

    Flat Line



    Just to make sure you can see the difference.



    AND, you bring up the issue with GHCN adjusted vs Raw

    And historic records of the GHCN database.

    Here is the raw vs adjusted output from the GHCN v 3.2 'pausebuster' dataset.



    I can go to NASA and grab lots of locations, with their own data, showing this same adjustment. Even the raw numbers so you can see it.

    Here is one a reporter in Australia found:



    This is fairly rampant.

    With the Raw data, there is a correlation between TSI and temperature. Same with satellite data and TSI.

    In fact, here is TSI and the GHCN v2 correlation:



    Those who control the past do seem to control the present, eh?
    its like its too easy. you literally post the graphs that show the opposite of what you claim.

    none of the graphs show the TSI increasing over the time frame in question. they all explicitly agree with the notion that solar forcing is not what is controlling our temp currently. your middle graph esp is hilarious and explicitly shows that solar forcing is not happening.

    i really, don't know what to tell you if keep posting graphs that show the opposite of what you claim.

    by all sources so far posted, by you, AND by me, the TSI has remained flat for nearly 100 years.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  5. #285
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    Oh, here is PDO and AMO and temperature from the USHCN v2:



    And CO2:



    Not a 0.99 correlation. (shrugs)
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  6. #286
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    This graph, which I believe is showing the same TSI data from above, lays it out fairly clearly:

    https://static.skepticalscience.com/pics/TvsTSI.png

    TSI fluctuates, but the average stays flat. Temperature also fluctuates, but is on a marked upward trend. I found the literal flat line thing to be intentionally avoiding understanding. The temp and TSI don't correlate unless you edit to periods where it specifically did. From a wide picture, the two data sets move in opposite directions since the 60s.

  7. #287
    again, you post more graphs that show the opposite of your claim.

    there is no correlation between TSI and temps for the later half of the 20th, and there is very good correlation between c02 and temps over the later half of the 20th.

    by your own graphs, you lose.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  8. #288
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    Reference
    Usoskin, I.G., Hulot, G., Gallet, Y., Roth, R., Licht, A., Joos, F., Kovaltsov, G.A., Thebault, E. and Khokhlov, A. 2014. Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity. Astronomy and Astrophysics 562: L10, doi: 10.1051/0004-6361/201423391.

    What was done
    According to Usoskin et al. (2014), the Sun "shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions." Now, however, in an attempt to overcome such uncertainties, in a Letter to the Editor published in the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics, Usoskin et al. "present the first fully adjustment-free physical reconstruction of solar activity" covering the past 3,000 years, which record allowed them "to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of detail."

    What was learned
    As illustrated in the figure below, the authors report there is "remarkable agreement" among the overlapping years of their reconstruction (solid black line) and the number of sunspots recorded from direct observations since 1610 (red line). Their reconstruction of solar activity also displays several "distinct features," including several "well-defined Grand minima of solar activity, ca. 770 BC, 350 BC, 680 AD, 1050 AD, 1310 AD, 1470 AD, and 1680 AD," as well as "the modern Grand maximum (which occurred during solar cycles 19-23, i.e., 1950-2009)," which they describe as "a rare or even unique event, in both magnitude and duration, in the past three millennia."


    Your ability to see a straight line where there is none is remarkable.

    Oh, yeah, we just had a Grand maximum event.

    That isn't a 100 year flat line, it is a once in a 3000 year event.
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  9. #289
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post


    Your ability to see a straight line where there is none is remarkable.

    Oh, yeah, we just had a Grand maximum event.

    That isn't a 100 year flat line, it is a once in a 3000 year event.
    your inability to even on a basic level understand a graph is truly frightening.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  10. #290
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    The Skeptical Science temperature graph uses the GHCN v3.2 dataset. The GHCN dataset doesn't correlate with satellite, raw GHCN, Rural GHNC, GHNC v2.0, weather balloon, or any other dataset.

    The past 20 years falls off, and is in 'Pause':





    I have shown the problem with the GHCN surface stations before in this. The Rural GHNC also track with the UAH and RSS datasets:



    But the GHCN v3.2 adjusted dataset shows warming for that period.

    It is the only one that shows that level of warming, and also it is the only one that doesn't track with TSI.
    Last edited by pbjosh; 12-01-2017 at 11:52 AM.
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