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Thread: OT: Politics

  1. #171
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    Ad hom is calling the source bad when you direct your complaint at the source instead of the data... and how can it be a bad source if the data is correct?

    My models? I don't make models. I have an interesting projection. I will see if I can find a model that matches that. Here are some interesting bits though, and my projection:

    Here is the original model for the AGW Theory, from James Hansen, and his 3 predictions. The first is expanding at the current rate (which we are), another fixed it at the 1990 emissions level, and the final one being if we ceased all CO2 emissions in 2000.



    The interesting bit is even though we didn't cut all CO2 emissions, reality tracked with that prediction.

    Here is a discussion on Easterbrooks prediction, which is kind of a mess. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/02/...ed-projection/

    Here is a cleaner version, and one I generally like (from skeptical science actually) showing general warming and oscillations that end up causing accelerated warming periods and troughs, like the pause:



    I suspect we will follow this a bit, though we have a deduction in solar output coming up - first a 400 year observation, then a prediction with cycle 25 and such:





    Since I think solar output and natural variation are large factors, I see the potential of the second graph to be diminished if we follow the same solar output of the Dalton Minimum. It will probably be relaxed, but some cooling into the 2030's followed by warming into 2050 is my prediction. Cooling in the 2030's should be minimal.

    I will hunt down some other models. Many skeptic models are driven by solar output though, like the Notch Effect model and the Henrik Svensmark Cooling Stars model, which was the basis for the CERN CLOUD experiment. They generally dislike the standard AWG Theory model because it holds many of the variables constant.

    This results in two types of modeling that do not have enough in common to be an apples to apples comparison, and missed the specific no water feedback version of Hansen's and related IPCC variants.
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  2. #172
    give up guys. you cant argue with josh.

    if he really was this good at climate research he could have a nobel prize in a heartbeat by publishing the paper that overturns ans rewrites climatology overnight.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  3. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Yep. The winner of course is Timothy McVeigh. Some diesel, some fertilizer.... cheap and plentiful, nice and efficient. Or $75 for a u-haul truck for the runner up (or runner down?). Well, he most likely didn't get the deposit back. (Too soon?)

    The difference, since you seems to want to go back to the tool vs the motivation debate, is you are not taking away the same tool used to defend yourself. We can't exactly carry around a fertilizer bomb or a pickup in our ankle holster to stop a shooter.

    But I am really done with the tool argument, and I will not go back to it. It is time better spent on the motivations, since those are root causes, not implements of the cause.
    Nope, taking care of the motivation as well is good.. it's just that you can do more than one thing at a time to tackle a problem you know?
    And of course there are limits to what can be limited.. doesn't mean that limiting some of the options won't help on the issue. And I'm not talking about banning all guns or some such nonsense.

    What I'm aiming at is that there might be some slight reason to the idea that it could help if your federal government actually knew who had guns, and had doctors/mental health professionals/judiciary system feed into that data to catch those that probably shouldn't have them.

    And yeah... We're not supposed to be the ones handling crime, police is.
    It's a really weird idea to think bunch variably trained (or not at all) people with unknown mental capacity in a stressful situation to be able asses the situation right and act rationally by the law.
    Not to mention the potential for escalation in a hectic situation.



    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    I generally do, but I was busy. That being said - the information is just the same, and the Ad Hominem fallacy is all yours.
    Ad hominem is when you attack a person to discredit a source or reasoning. Not when you criticize source to be unreliable. Just as Steve said.
    Just because source is unreliable though doesn't meant that it might not be right on some occasions. It's just that you can't trust the content without outside confirmation. Like in this case.

    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    As I linked before, mostly in conversation with Gordon, there is a growing body of work (thousands of papers actually, with 400 just this year) showing long term changes in solar output and variability being the major driver of climate.

    from https://www.skepticalscience.com/sol...g-advanced.htm

    or more recent TSI data
    ftp://ftp.pmodwrc.ch/pub/data/irradi...42_65_1709.pdf
    ftp://ftp.pmodwrc.ch/pub/data/irradi...ite/DataPlots/

    Sun's effect on climate
    http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming...imate-faq.html


    About some of the anthropocene contradicting papers.
    https://link.springer.com/article/10...704-015-1597-5

  4. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Ad hom is calling the source bad when you direct your complaint at the source instead of the data... and how can it be a bad source if the data is correct?
    They gave no data. Don't give them the ad revenue for doing nothing.

  5. #175
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    Will you be participating in the journal club?

  6. #176
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    The Forum just ate about an hour of reply - for the second time today.

    I am letting it sit to see if it pops back up.

    Quickly:

    Gordon, your comment is the same as saying since you didn't win the SCCA nationals so many times that you won the special reward for all for all racing leagues, we should ignore all your points on vehicles. It is stupid, but you keep repeating it.

    Dr Roy Spencer and Dr John Christy would deserve it if any climate scientist. They invented satellite temperature readings - a HUGE improvement in our ability to measure climate compared to the weather balloons and the GISS system. It is mind blowing, and the largest step forward in climate temperature measurement we have ever had.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttNg1F7T0Y0

    Steve: having them waste money on ads that don't affect me is another win in a way.

    The journal club thing simply supports this graph. Not much else needs to be said. That is my 1000 word reply, and agrees. Oh, one interesting bit, the Journal link uses the UAH and RSS datasets.



    Laku: This has all been gone over in the past with TSI in this tread. Plus a lot more. And these videos, on gun control. There is a lot to understand:


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjAsM1vAhW0

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvTO-y-B2YM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyAhoB01kwQ
    Last edited by pbjosh; 11-11-2017 at 12:15 AM.
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  7. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Laku: This has all been gone over in the past with TSI in this tread. Plus a lot more. And these videos, on gun control. There is a lot to understand:
    Ok I'll have to dig that up and see. Though it does seem, at least on the surface, like you're playing some angle of galileo gambit in this.

    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    I've seen this TED talk by Peter van Uhm before and I agree on what he's trying to say.
    But I don't get how you figure his speech on armed forces and law is relevant to civilian use of guns?
    I don't think are you saying US is a failed state and that your military should act, but it's the only relevance I can see?
    He certainly isn't saying arm the civilians..

    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    As unfortunate to these people that went through this it's anecdotal and as such not evidence by itself on any direction.

    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Evidence value of what?

  8. #178
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    Though it does seem, at least on the surface, like you're playing some angle of galileo gambit in this.
    No, not really - I like inconvenient facts. About 15 years ago I wanted to start understanding the science of how AWG works, and I found some bits that were inconvenient. Like how much of the GHG effect was water vapor. How much CO2 is stored in the oceans, and related. A year later I had GISS-A downloaded, spreadsheets of the past climate data down loaded, and I had found surfacestations.org http://www.surfacestations.org/ and was walking down local weather stations to review to see if they had done them right, which resulted in this report:

    http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpr...1/07/r-367.pdf



    Seems that most of the sites have issues. Turns out a large part of the GISS dataset was poorly sited. I know, because I walked some of them down. One was right by my house, next to a water treatment plant, in a cut out bowl of land, in shadow part of the day, within 20 ft of asphalt, right where I took my dog on walks. They are supposed to be in an open field, away from any pavement or heat source or related.



    vs.



    They are 30 miles apart.

    There are many like that.





    That's part of the reason I prefer the satellite database.
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  9. #179
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    Since a quick stall in the discussion, let's pick another fun topic that I won't be able to comment on till Monday (maybe):

    Will all of the allegations coming from Hollywood and related, a long history of issues with all sorts of male predators, and related cultural changes, who here thinks Prostitution should be legalized?

    If so or not, why?

    I am for - consenting adults and all of that. But also because I think that would act as a reduction of rape, incest, and other sexual based problems since many would not be able to deal with because of awkwardness or otherwise. Kind of like the FireFly world where they are in control of the situation.

    Thoughts?
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  10. #180
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Since a quick stall in the discussion, let's pick another fun topic that I won't be able to comment on till Monday (maybe):

    Will all of the allegations coming from Hollywood and related, a long history of issues with all sorts of male predators, and related cultural changes, who here thinks Prostitution should be legalized?

    If so or not, why?

    I am for - consenting adults and all of that. But also because I think that would act as a reduction of rape, incest, and other sexual based problems since many would not be able to deal with because of awkwardness or otherwise. Kind of like the FireFly world where they are in control of the situation.

    Thoughts?
    Anything that the government could tax to make money is good for all.

    Seriously, as the oldest profession, why not? We pay people to cook for us, to clothe us, to take care of us, but as soon as sex is near it; the puritantical roots of some in this country start flairing like nostrils of an enraged bull.

    Pros: Having set standards by the professionals in their job, with the government (county, state and/or federal) and meeting standized health-code levels of cleanliness and care.
    Entry level positions for both sexes.
    Trickle down effect of not only having a new and viable work force, but gaining tax money from actually working, housing, and health care. Not to mention of having those persons earn money but contribute legally into the economy.
    Removing the stigma of sex, even though we see sex in nearly every venue we see or are exposed to.
    Hurting any organized crime organization on a product which they make money illegally.

    Cons: the religious right would never approve of this openly. Regardless of any therapeutic or economical results, the single notion of "sodomy" is generally abhorent to the religious right. Recreation is wrong when in place of procreation. Sex outside marriage is viewed upon as wrong, though many of the religious "leaders" have all had their hand in the proverbial cookie jar.

    Talks of disease spreading whores, or how sex should be done only between a married man and woman, ONLY; legalized prostitution would never go. And as much as as those supposed leaders talk out both sides of their collective mouths, through their own actions, it would never get off the ground.

    Talk of this is like revisiting censorship of music from the PRC back in the 80's. They would only focus on the negatices of a few select cases and blow it way out of proportion. And as much as this country was founded on principles of freedom, choice. The meer proposal of choice to some is wrong.

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