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Thread: OT: Politics

  1. #1471
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Uhm, no? Stating Alaska works differently from California with the BLM shows I am not conflating the two.

    I might be wrong in your position, but I think you have it backwards. The BLM has a list of rules and they have to interact with each state on a state by state basis, without breaking their rules. Each state interaction is different - each state is different. But I do not see the BLM going, you know what, let the state fucking burn for all I care.



    I am being very broad and short - and I am conflating the USFS and BLM to save time. The Federal Government vs State Government, and who owns and controls what, is this part of the discussion because the original claim as proposed is Trump was wrong to state this in a tweet:



    To support that this statement is wrong, the supporting comment is the State can't do the work because the US Gov is in control of most of the land, and not under state control. And that Trump can just fix this if he wants to.

    To clarify, my comment is counter to that: The BLM/USFS as arms of the government work with the state to manage land, but often the state dictates what happens to an extent, not the Fed Gov - it requires all parties in this, but due to restrictions and taking this as a state by state basis, the State of California chooses to manage differently than states like Alaska.

    So I would say we are in agreement there?

    As shown here before California has policies that limit burning, limit forestry, and limit fire brakes, and the long history of those limits has built up a lot of underbrush. And that they know that internally. That is politics over forest management, and that was at the direction of the state of California.

    Your position that the federal government and it's agencies do not act as a monolithic whole would support my position a wee tiny bit, since the proposed position is that the feds are in majority control and Trump can just tell them what to do, and the state can't do anything on it's own for most of it's property.

    Which is a bit absurd.
    the argument that we can improve our land management does not actually make this a true statement: "There is no reason for these massive, deadly and costly forest fires in California except that forest management is so poor."

    in order of importance, from trump's own government, the primary reason for these fires being so deadly and costly, is climate change. improved land managment doesn't even make the list (because its a red harring). trumps claim is 100% wrong, by his own government's admission.
    Last edited by cockerpunk; 11-27-2018 at 02:53 PM.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  2. #1472
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Man, Gordon is defensive. Look at all of that projecting.

    Funny, I never said I even really like Trump. I think I have been clear on that. I voted for Gary Johnson, and I am not a fan of the tariffs, and I do wish Trump would just shut the F up on twitter and that he acts like a 5th grader. Not exactly high respect there. Yet Gordon turns that into statements about a demigod. So interesting his reaction, don't you think?

    He is really trying to divert away from his very consistent blame of everything on the GOP being driven by racism statements, isn't he?

    See - when a person paints a large portion of society with just a large, simple, and effectively wrong brush, and feels so justified in doing (he has stated he feels very justified in trying to bash people on the internet he thinks are wrong. Or the GOP, but I repeat myself.) It betrays the level of tribal behavior.

    Big Chief Gordon, fighting the true fight! Oh wait, don't call it tribalism. I think it is easy to figure, from his reaction, just how tightly he holds to his rationalization and sacred positions. Trying to hoist another person to that same level as a diversion shows the almost bi-polar thinking that has to be used to hold those beliefs.

    Sadly, I am just a mid level bit of grey in the checkerboard Gordon universe, and he really can't see anything but the two dimensional paper doll he keeps yelling at.

    Welcome, sit down at this forum. But if you don't toe Gordon's line and virtue signal properly, well, you are an evil Trump supporter. Watch out Ryan! EEeeeevvviiiillll.....
    i never said you liked trump, i said you defended the not true words of your demi-god. which, you do.

    i blame what is the GOP's fault on the GOP. not my problem that on almost every subject matter they are factually incorrect. thats the GOPs problem. they have been living in a post-facts world for a while now.

    and i only call evil what is evil, like thinking its reasonable to put children in cages and have them defend themselves in court. thats pretty textbook evil.



    the irony of attempting to say that i paint the world in large and simple brushes while defending trumps false claims .... so sweet.

    EDIT: i also do not believe for a single second that you voted for gary Johnson, who himself, told his supporters to vote for hillary. if irony can own his vote for trump, you can too. be a man.
    Last edited by cockerpunk; 11-27-2018 at 02:59 PM.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  3. #1473
    Show us a law that supports your position that California can dictate to the Federal government how the federal government manages its land. As you appear to recognize yourself, pointing to Alaska is a useless exercise because the federal agencies can have legally different relations with states. Given that the Good Neighbor legislation that passed in 2014 (https://www.fs.fed.us/managing-land/farm-bill/gna) was designed to allow States to enter into agreements with the Feds to manage federal land, I'll be interested to see if you find anything. Until you can come up with something, all you are doing is jerry-rigging an argument based on two different federal agencies relations with two different states.

  4. #1474
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lurker27 View Post
    The Trump tariffs have little to no theoretical pathway to immediate economic success, in my estimation. Some analysts think that they're overall a good idea to wrest power from the ascendant Chinese. China is going to replace any foreign investment with Keynesian stimulus, and we'll see if that messes them up at all. It's not the craziest thing in the world to turn the screws on them by reducing demand, since their aging population doesn't lead to a robust internal consumer economy yet.

    The trade war is necessarily one of attrition, and I think any honest analysis is that it places national (cynically, American corporate) interests above those of constituents. This is a case where the fear of the other (racism) is probably being wielded as a club, but I'm not totally sure it's wrong.
    On that note, farmers (especially small ones) are discovering a lot of produce goes to china: https://apnews.com/70498f1fe7af463284c3706b65032cf6

    I've also been reading that China has been replacing American goods and investment with goods and investment from other nations, since this is unilateral action by the US. I don't think they'll need to resort to Keynes all that much.

  5. #1475
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    Maybe partially, but they can't replace the total amount of demand (though the tariffs probably don't move that needle enough). China is already employing mild quantitative easing in response to the tariffs. Their balance sheet is cleaner than ours, but they're also currency manipulators.

    If I'm handicapping things, the most likely outcome is that our economy goes south before China's does, Trump declares victory over some worthless concessions, and little lasting damage is done.

    Chinese markets have been clobbered recently - it's probably a good time to get in to the Chinese market if you believe that pendulum's likely to swing.

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  6. #1476
    Quote Originally Posted by Lurker27 View Post
    Maybe partially, but they can't replace the total amount of demand (though the tariffs probably don't move that needle enough). China is already employing mild quantitative easing in response to the tariffs. Their balance sheet is cleaner than ours, but they're also currency manipulators.

    If I'm handicapping things, the most likely outcome is that our economy goes south before China's does, Trump declares victory over some worthless concessions, and little lasting damage is done.

    Chinese markets have been clobbered recently - it's probably a good time to get in to the Chinese market if you believe that pendulum's likely to swing.

    FTSE
    KWEB
    This strategy might work better if he wasn't screwing over other trading partners. It won't just be tariffs on China. It's all the other tariffs he's imposed on raw materials. I wish I could find it again, but I remember reading somewhere the reason a lot of companies move production to Mexico isn't because labor is necessarily cheaper (American productivity can cancel out the advantage), it's that importing raw materials can be cheaper.

    Edit: Even in that instance its better to economically incent American companies to move away from China and into other developing markets by lowering barriers to entry

    Also, I thought China hasn't been manipulating its currency for several years. Have they started again?
    Last edited by d0cwho; 11-27-2018 at 07:42 PM.

  7. #1477
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    Show us a law that supports your position that California can dictate to the Federal government how the federal government manages its land.
    That's a bit of a mis-understanding of my statement. Are you trying Gordon's trick of misquoting a person grossly just to get a reply? Seems to have worked. As stated before States work in tandem with the Fed Government. They both have to agree, and they come up with a plan together. They work within states laws and wishes, while not working outside the bounds of the federal government's power. The state might be different, but the relationship the state and BLM/USFS follows the same guideline. And as shown, time and time again, California choose.....poorly.

    Counter that to support Gordon's claim as you seem to want to defend, show us the law that supports his position that the Federal can dictate to the state how that state manages its land. That Trump can just [waves hand] 'Make it so'. He can't even write the budget, just send a proposal and veto at the end. congress has the purse strings, for all of Trump's empty threats otherwise.

    EDIT: i also do not believe for a single second that you voted for gary Johnson, who himself, told his supporters to vote for hillary. if irony can own his vote for trump, you can too. be a man.
    I so fucking voted for Gary Johnson. Wasn't even a second thought. Happiest I have ever felt leaving the voting station to snub it to the two absolutely worthless, piss poor, really the worst two choices we have ever had as options on a presidential ticket ever. If this is the best the biggest two parties could have done, then both of them should commit sacrificial suicide for the betterment of the country. Still happy about it every day. I would vote for Gary "Panther" Johnson again without fail. Oh, my daughter is a libertarian also! So proud. #feelthejohnson

    You do not have single clue who I am, and can't believe I exist outside of your stereotypical folder for "Not My Tribe", can you? It is kind of interesting to watch how disconnected you really are. And how you judge. It really is like you have one folder for anybody not you. But then, I am an Evil Moron who lies, so do you really know? [lifts eyebrow]. Is this even me? I could be hacked. Just to torment you personally. Do I even exist? [dramatic music, screen fades].

    As further proof that you and reality only have a passing relationship, you gave us a two-fer in one sentence. Better than normal:

    But unlike Bill Weld, the former governor of Massachusetts who ran as Johnson*s vice presidential nominee last year, Johnson was unwilling to suggest that Clinton would have been a better choice. *I never got on the *lesser evil* thing,* he said. The republic, he said, would have been in some danger had she won * less, but some.

    *You know that during Hillary*s entire tenure, it was going to be about the emails,* Johnson said. *It was going to be about pay-to-play.*

    For a short time in 2016, Johnson speculated about blowing up the two-party system. There had never been a better chance, with two cosmically unpopular candidates nominated by the Democrats and Republicans. He cracked into double digits in some polls, better in some states, but Hillary Clinton*s campaign *must have spent $50 million to stop that.*

    Johnson, who is not bitter about much, is bitter about that. He remembers the Web ads * Snapchat ads * that showed him speculating about space mining and muffing a question about the war in Syria. An online search for his name still, in October 2017, suggests *Aleppo* as a companion term

    *If you saw that, you*d think I was the dumbest [expletive] on the planet,* Johnson said.

    But the campaign was only partially successful. The Libertarians did beat their records, and turn hundreds of thousands of young and first-time voters into party-crashers.
    Gordon, sorry to break to to ya bud - Johnson didn't tell people to vote for Hilary either.

    And More!:

    https://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/07/gary...-or-trump.html

    Gary Johnson: Don't waste your vote on Clinton or Trump

    Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson said Monday on CNBC's "Closing Bell" that it is never too late to vote "on principle," and continued to encourage voters to cast their ballots for the Libertarian party.
    The problem with these statements is you will seem to pretend they don't exist. Just like the documents from the State of California to the State of California, which were published way before Trump tweeted, upheld his comments in his tweet.

    You still haven't taken that into account with your reply, because it ruins your position completely. Just like me voting for Gary Johnson, or the fact Johnson didn't endorse Hillary, the State of California said the same thing as Trump, early this year. It is a really in depth report.

    Come on Gordon. Own a bit of loss. I might make you more human. Try it.

    If I'm handicapping things, the most likely outcome is that our economy goes south before China's does, Trump declares victory over some worthless concessions, and little lasting damage is done.
    I think the Chinese Government will more likely fold. Xi has some critics. Our economy is stronger, and we are their biggest client. As posted above, the tariffs have already affected their Navy, and their aircraft carrier. China is putting out some stronger societal controls while allowing more privatization. There are a lot of factors at play.

    Also, I thought China hasn't been manipulating its currency for several years. Have they started again?
    There seemed to be till recently - though the last time I strongly followed this was till 2015 or so? The current difference seems to be driven more by the strong Dollar than a deliberately weakened Yuan. But we also have a decades of old deficit, we are a ways behind. We will see.

    On that note, farmers (especially small ones) are discovering a lot of produce goes to china:
    BACON!

    Americans are losing their taste for chicken and eating more beef and pork as President Donald Trump's trade wars reduce U.S. pork exports to China and Mexico and leave cheaper bacon and ribs at home.

    Kraft Heinz Co, which owns the Oscar Mayer brand, has cut prices for bacon after pork belly prices declined. Ahold Delhaize's Food Lion and Stop & Shop grocery stores have offered deals and launched marketing campaigns for pork, said Jarrod Sutton, a vice president for the National Pork Board, a trade group. Food Lion said it offers promotions based on product availability.

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects per capita chicken consumption will rise only about 1.2 percent next year, compared to gains of 4.3 percent for pork and 2.6 percent for beef.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/business/con...r-cuts-n935536

    Lets see - veggies vs bacon.....hmm..... (I couldn't resist)
    Last edited by pbjosh; 11-28-2018 at 12:12 AM.
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  8. #1478
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    That's a bit of a mis-understanding of my statement. Are you trying Gordon's trick of misquoting a person grossly just to get a reply? Seems to have worked. As stated before States work in tandem with the Fed Government. They both have to agree, and they come up with a plan together. They work within states laws and wishes, while not working outside the bounds of the federal government's power. The state might be different, but the relationship the state and BLM/USFS follows the same guideline. And as shown, time and time again, California choose.....poorly.

    Counter that to support Gordon's claim as you seem to want to defend, show us the law that supports his position that the Federal can dictate to the state how that state manages its land. That Trump can just [waves hand] 'Make it so'. He can't even write the budget, just send a proposal and veto at the end. congress has the purse strings, for all of Trump's empty threats otherwise.
    It's Constitution 101 that the Federal government has ultimate control over the lands it owns. I don't know how I am "misquoting" you when your next sentence literally says the State has a veto over any government decision regarding management of federal lands. You are basically arguing against yourself in your first two sentences. Unless a statute says differently that's the default rule. Burden is on you to prove your argument that the default rule is not in place in this instance. In other words, you need to show us a statute that requires the Federal government to agree with the state on how best to manage forests on the land the federal government owns. Pointing out Gordon's statements oversimplify things does not prove your point, nor do they disprove his ultimate point. The federal government has ultimate control over the lands it owns.

  9. #1479
    Quote Originally Posted by Lurker27 View Post
    Maybe partially, but they can't replace the total amount of demand (though the tariffs probably don't move that needle enough). China is already employing mild quantitative easing in response to the tariffs. Their balance sheet is cleaner than ours, but they're also currency manipulators.

    If I'm handicapping things, the most likely outcome is that our economy goes south before China's does, Trump declares victory over some worthless concessions, and little lasting damage is done.

    Chinese markets have been clobbered recently - it's probably a good time to get in to the Chinese market if you believe that pendulum's likely to swing.

    FTSE
    KWEB
    most large companies seem to be predicting 2019 Q2 at this point. get ready with cash to jump on some pretty good deals.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  10. #1480
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    I so fucking voted for Gary Johnson. Wasn't even a second thought. Happiest I have ever felt leaving the voting station to snub it to the two absolutely worthless, piss poor, really the worst two choices we have ever had as options on a presidential ticket ever. If this is the best the biggest two parties could have done, then both of them should commit sacrificial suicide for the betterment of the country. Still happy about it every day. I would vote for Gary "Panther" Johnson again without fail. Oh, my daughter is a libertarian also! So proud. #feelthejohnson

    You do not have single clue who I am, and can't believe I exist outside of your stereotypical folder for "Not My Tribe", can you? It is kind of interesting to watch how disconnected you really are. And how you judge. It really is like you have one folder for anybody not you. But then, I am an Evil Moron who lies, so do you really know? [lifts eyebrow]. Is this even me? I could be hacked. Just to torment you personally. Do I even exist? [dramatic music, screen fades].

    As further proof that you and reality only have a passing relationship, you gave us a two-fer in one sentence. Better than normal:



    Gordon, sorry to break to to ya bud - Johnson didn't tell people to vote for Hilary either.
    sorry, you are correct, it was bill weld his running mate for VP who told his supporters to vote for hillary. i'll give you that one.

    I don't believe you because the furor you defend trump at every single statement someone says about him. that kind of lap dog behavior doesn't come from someone morally opposed to him. esp when you explicitly defend some of the least moral things trump has done. combine this with your obvious ability to lie even while having the facts shoved in your face (see also the TSI), and it becomes pretty clearly that the "don't blame me, i just defend the guy!" argument just piles up the exact same. either a moron, or lying on purpose.

    I can only take your positions and your presentation of yourself as what you present of yourself. and of that, i think you voted for trump based on your constant defense of even his stupidest statements.

    I know republicans and conservatives who i merely disagree with politically and who i know did not vote for trump. none of them defend trump. most are more pissed at him than i am because he is literally destroying conservatism for a generation.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

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