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Thread: OT: Politics

  1. #1711
    Insider Unfated33's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PBSteve View Post
    Likely a controversial opinion: I wish Sanders weren't running.
    I think you have a lot of support for that opinion in this room. I'm still hoping the great mess of Dem Presidential candidates consolidates into one of: Sherrod Brown, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar, and Kirsten Gillibrand. I feel like everyone else is flawed or invisible/not-electable. But Sanders? No, I didn't like him in 2016 and I'm no more endeared to him now. Based on the fivethirtyeight chart of candidates support base, it appears that I am firmly in the party loyalist camp and not one of the Left, Young, African American, or Hispanic cohorts. Then again, I've soured on Joe Biden faster than I think most of my peers have - I would have enthusiastically supported him in 2016 but now worry that opportunity has passed him by.

    EDIT: Fivethirtyeight chart for candidates - https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ratic-primary/
    Last edited by Unfated33; 02-27-2019 at 10:49 AM.

  2. #1712
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    Quote Originally Posted by cockerpunk View Post
    holy shit, read the cohen statment.

    its scathing.

    he also submitted the check, signed by trump himself, to pay him back for stormy Daniels.

    the president, by his own signature, its a felon.
    A sitting President can't be indicted by current policy/norms. So as long as he stays President, he's not yet a felon - regardless of what crimes he has committed or has been indicted under seal waiting for him to leave office. Maybe he is gaining incentive to stay as long as he can?

  3. #1713
    Quote Originally Posted by Unfated33 View Post
    A sitting President can't be indicted by current policy/norms. So as long as he stays President, he's not yet a felon - regardless of what crimes he has committed or has been indicted under seal waiting for him to leave office. Maybe he is gaining incentive to stay as long as he can?
    oh he's a felon, maybe due to fascist republicans he isnt currently convicted, but he is a felon.

    make no mistake.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  4. #1714
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    It is remarkable watching democrats simultaneously call the 2016 heartland electorate racist and misogynist while courting a field of primarily minority and/or female candidates for 2020. Can we just trot vanilla-ass Sherrod Brown out there to get the W in OH and PA and worry about virtue signalling in 2028?

    Seriously, I get agita with how obviously the DNC is trying to give 2020 away. GOP may be terrible at policy but the DNC is terrible at politics.
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  5. #1715
    Insider Unfated33's Avatar
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    It would seem like Sherrod Brown has a very strong, "value of hard work"-focused, campaign that would appeal to many midwestern (and possibly FL) voters. I rank him very high on the list of Presidential candidates. On the other hand, the big drawback with him is that you lose a blue senate seat in a state that is more Republican than ever with a Republican governor. Brown with Booker or Harris as his VP would cover the five corners of the Democratic Party very well. Gillibrand wouldn't be a bad third choice veep.

  6. #1716
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    It's usually the voters calling the heartland racist (because they are), not the politicians. The DNC spends a decent amount of effort wrangling that message - and failing.

    It's not like the GoP is much different though, the politicians themselves attack "coastal liberal elites" constantly. They just know they can do it and still count on the votes and money of the affluent.

    Anyway, interesting read re: the GoP being Trump's party
    Former Massachusetts governor Bill Weld may not be the only person to challenge President Trump for the Republican nomination in 2020. But whatever happens, the Republican primaries will reveal the extent to which the GOP is now Trump*s party, and why.

    No one who runs against Trump will have any realistic hope of defeating him. Polls consistently show 80 percent or more of Republicans approve of the job he is doing. That figure rises to 93 percent among people who voted for him, according to the most recent Economist-YouGov poll. Trump also beats all of his potential challengers in head-to-head matchups, from margins ranging from 85-15 against Weld to a low of *only* 69-19 against Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah). No one who wants a serious future in GOP politics will undertake this kamikaze mission.

    Trump has earned this high level of support because he has delivered on the items of supreme importance to almost every Republican faction. University of New Hampshire professor Dante Scala and I examined these groupings in our book *The Four Faces of the Republican Party.* Pre-Trump, the party had four factions: fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, *somewhat* conservatives (also labeled business conservatives) and moderates. Trump brought new voters into the primary process and created a fifth faction: nationalist conservatives, who want to lower immigration and redo foreign trade deals. Four of these five have received the things they care most about under the Trump administration.

    The tax cut delivers for both fiscal conservatives (who never really cared about deficits as much as they did lowering taxes) and business conservatives. His judicial appointments deliver for social conservatives. Trump*s deregulation delights business conservatives. And his stances on immigration and trade show nationalist conservatives he has their backs. These groups together comprise about 80 percent of the party * almost precisely Trump*s job approval rating among Republicans.


    President Trump has irreversibly changed the Republican Party. The upheaval might seem unusual, but as Opinion writer Robert Gebelhoff explains, political transformations crop up throughout U.S. history. (Adriana Usero/The Washington Post)
    The persistent agitation for a primary challenge, then, reveals who is genuinely unhappy with the president. It*s not the conservative voters, although there are surely many fiscal and somewhat conservative writers who remain unreconciled. Only the moderates are disgruntled. And that shows in the identities of the people who are seriously exploring a run.

    Weld is a moderate*s moderate. As governor of Massachusetts, he was known for being a social liberal and a fiscal conservative. His latest foray into politics was as the Libertarian Party*s vice presidential nominee in 2016, again espousing his social liberalism (pro-abortion rights).

    Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is another potential challenger, but he, too, falls decidedly in the moderate camp. His support for gun-control legislation caused the National Rifle Association to withdraw its endorsement during his reelection campaign last year. He says he is personally opposed to abortion but has declined to take stands on issues that are important to the antiabortion movement, such as defunding Planned Parenthood. Hogan also refused to take a stand on Brett M. Kavanaugh*s nomination to Supreme Court. Hogan, at best, is soft-pedaling social issues in a very Democratic state, but that is not what the conservatives who dominate Republican primaries want in their president.

    All this reveals two things. First, anti-Trump Republicans remain utterly unwilling to address the party*s current opinions on key issues. The only way they could beat Trump in a GOP primary is to offer someone of blameless character and unquestioned courage who also agrees with the priorities of the party*s four majority factions. The fact that not one serious anti-Trump challenger or entity has adopted these stances tells you they really oppose one or more his policies almost as much as his persona.


    Second, it shows that today*s Republican Party is both afraid of what the future might bring and despairing that politics as usual will forestall that catastrophe. Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.) quotes one of his constituents in his recent book, *Them,* who berates him over his opposition to Trump in 2016 because if Hillary Clinton had won, America *would have been hunting Christians in the street for sport under a 7-2 Hillary Court.* That fatalist mind-set is pervasive among today*s conservative voters.

    Religious conservatives are afraid their faith is threatened by a Democratic victory and want someone who will stop that from happening. Fiscal and business conservatives are afraid of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez*s (D-N.Y.) socialism and want someone to protect them. Nationalist conservatives have already experienced job loss, income declines and community decay. They want someone who will fight to treat them as worthy of respect as any American who graduates from college or immigrates to our shores. Anyone who seeks the party*s nomination must be responsive to these concerns, both in policy and, more importantly, in tone. So far, Republican anti-Trumpers fail both tests.

    The Republican Party is now the party of Trump, but not for the reasons anti-Trumpers think. It is not Trump*s party because he has bent it to his will; it is his party because its voters have bent Trump and the party to their will. Anyone who wants to lead today*s GOP must engage with that will, or they will continue to feel politically homeless.
    If you're not anti-fascist, what does that make you?I work for the company building the Paragon...once we figure out a name

  7. #1717
    holy smokes this hearing is nuts.

    republicans have nothing on cohen. they are just demonstrating how fascist they truly are (as if we needed any more data). cohen brought the evidence he needed, and its already over. checks been fed exed from new york guys. its done. get out now or i'm calling you'all fascists for the rest of your lives you fucking pricks. done and done.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  8. #1718
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    Good read/find, Steve. I suppose one shouldn't be surprised when self-avowed conservatives behave in a manner consistent with loss-aversion. It does completely upend any hope I have for the GOP being a party that's intellectually tenable* in any kind of near term.
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  9. #1719
    trump exposes the fact that nothing republicans claimed to believed in, they actually believe in. how long ago this really shifted i don't know, but in my mind it was somewhere in the early 2000s.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  10. #1720
    Insider PBSteve's Avatar
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    My favorite recent event is all the congressional republicans who voted for Trump and McConnell's tax cuts (reduce government revenue) who have now passed resolutions declaring the national debt an emergency.

    If I voted GoP it would be difficult not to see it as an insult to my intelligence.
    If you're not anti-fascist, what does that make you?I work for the company building the Paragon...once we figure out a name

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