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Thread: OT: Politics

  1. #21
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    wall-o-text is not an argument.
    Wall o links is.

    I have 400 papers in a link FROM JUST THIS YEAR showing otherwise.

    Do you have 401 saying something else?

    I can put them all here, with a nice little paragraph.

    Yan et al., 2017 Morpho- and hydrodynamic variations seem to coincide with northern hemispheric solar forcing. The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) until about 1270 CE displays generally moist and warm climate conditions with minor fluctuations [stability], likely in response to variations in summer monsoon intensity. The three-partite period of the Little Ice Age (LIA), shows hydrologically unstable conditions between 1350 and 1530 CE with remarkably colder periods, assigned to a prolonged seasonal ice cover. … Seasonal freezing periods in excess of the average time of frozen water bodies also occurred in periods of the well-known grand solar minima and indicate stronger seasonality, possibly independent from variations in summer monsoon strength but with links to global northern hemispheric climate.
    Li et al., 2017 We suggest that solar activity may play a key role in driving the climatic fluctuations in NC [North China] during the last 22 centuries, with its quasi ∼100, 50, 23, or 22-year periodicity clearly identified in our climatic reconstructions. … It has been widely suggested from both climate modeling and observation data that solar activity plays a key role in driving late Holocene climatic fluctuations by triggering global temperature variability and atmospheric dynamical circulation … In short, the mechanism of the climatic variations in NC can be likely summarized as follows. The strengthened solar activity could be significantly amplified by the variations in ultraviolet radiation as well as clouds (e.g., Haigh, 1996; Tinsley, 2000), resulting in the marked variability in global surface temperature. … Additionally, increased El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) strength (possibly El Niño-like phases) during drying periods, increased volcanic eruptions and the resulting aerosol load during cooling periods, as well as high volumes of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4 during the recent warming periods, may also play a role in partly affecting the climatic variability in NC, superimposing on the overall solar-dominated long-term control (e.g., Wanner et al., 2008; Tan et al., 2011; Kobashi et al., 2013; Chen et al., 2015a,b).
    Yndestad and Solheim, 2017 Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern maximum period from 1940 to 2015. The model computes a new Dalton-type sunspot minimum from approximately 2025 to 2050 and a new Dalton-type period TSI minimum from approximately 2040 to 2065. … Periods with few sunspots are associated with low solar activity and cold climate periods. Periods with many sunspots are associated with high solar activity and warm climate periods. … Studies that employ cosmogenic isotope data and sunspot data indicate that we are currently leaving a grand activity maximum, which began in approximately 1940 and is now declining (Usoskin et al., 2003; Solanki et al., 2004; Abreu et al., 2008). Because grand maxima and minima occur on centennial or millennial timescales, they can only be investigated using proxy data, i.e., solar activity reconstructed from 10Be and 14C time-calibrated data. The conclusion is that the activity level of the Modern Maximum (1940–2000) is a relatively rare event, with the previous similarly high levels of solar activity observed 4 and 8 millennia ago (Usoskin et al., 2003).
    Rydval et al., 2017 [T]he recent summer-time warming in Scotland is likely not unique when compared to multi-decadal warm periods observed in the 1300s, 1500s, and 1730s … All six [Northern Hemisphere] records show a warmer interval in the period leading up to the 1950s, although it is less distinct in the CEU reconstruction. [E]xtreme cold (and warm) years observed in NCAIRN appear more related to internal forcing of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. … There is reasonable agreement in general between the records regarding protracted cold periods which occur during the LIA and specifically around the Maunder solar minimum centred on the second half of the seventeenth century and to some extent also around the latter part of the fifteenth century coinciding with part of the Spörer minimum (Usoskin et al. 2007).
    Last edited by pbjosh; 10-27-2017 at 11:26 AM.
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  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Wall o links is.

    I have 400 papers in a link FROM JUST THIS YEAR showing otherwise.

    Do you have 401 saying something else?

    I can put them all here, with a nice little paragraph.
    unless your 400 links shows that TSI increased (hint: they don't) they don't matter.

    TSI has been flat or declining slightly for 40 years. this is why solar forcing is known to not be the reason for the current upswing in global temps.
    Last edited by cockerpunk; 10-27-2017 at 11:29 AM.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  3. #23
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    All that shows, with my reply to yours, is that there is a LOT of science happening right now.

    It is not a consensus.

    It is not known yet.

    Discoveries are happening rapidly, with a lot of interesting stuff being brought up. That is without getting into the CERN data!

    Absolutely great time to be discussing this!
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  4. #24
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    Uhm, you didn't read the text then.

    Just look up:

    Deterministic models based on the stationary periods confirm the results through a close relation to known long solar minima since 1000 A.D. and suggest a modern maximum period from 1940 to 2015.
    Reconstructed long-term temperature variations match reasonably well with solar irradiance changes since warm and cold phases correspond with high and low solar activity, respectively. …

    Four warm periods – 1626–1637, 1800–1809, 1845– 1859, and 1986–2012 – have been identified to correspond to increased solar activity.
    Proving only that you don't read before you reply.
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  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    All that shows, with my reply to yours, is that there is a LOT of science happening right now.

    It is not a consensus.

    It is not known yet.

    Discoveries are happening rapidly, with a lot of interesting stuff being brought up. That is without getting into the CERN data!

    Absolutely great time to be discussing this!
    there is absolutely a consensus that the sun is not what is currently forcing climate change.

    the data is clear, it has been since the late 1990s, the sun has not increased output of the time-frame in question, ergo, there is no solar forcing. its actually been a slightly decline.

    no amount of skeptical website click link lists talking about other periods of solar activity, or tends linking the two (there absolutely is a link between the suns output and the climate), or whatever bull shit you want to petal .... its there. the cold hard data is there, it all agrees, and it all says there is no solar forcing right now.

    sorry.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  6. #26
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    Best read this paper first:

    Gray et al., 2017 There are several proposed mechanisms through which the 11-year solar cycle (SC) could influence the Earth’s climate, as summarised by Figure 1. These include: (a) the direct impact of solar irradiance variability on temperatures at the Earth’s surface, characterised by variation in the total incoming solar irradiance (TSI); (b) the indirect impact of variations through the absorption of Ultra-Violet (UV) radiation in the upper stratosphere associated with the presence of ozone, with accompanying dynamical responses that extend the impact to the Earth’s surface; (c) the indirect impact of variations in energetic particle fluxes into the thermosphere, mesosphere and upper stratosphere at high geomagnetic latitudes; and (d) the impact of variations in the generation of ions by galactic cosmic ray (GCR) penetration into the troposphere. Although different in their nature, these four pathways may not work in isolation but their influence could be synergetic.


    http://aip.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1063/1.4975498

    TSI is ONE element of solar forcing.

    Weak argument it weak....
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  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Uhm, you didn't read the text then.

    Just look up:





    Proving only that you don't read before you reply.
    this does not disagree in anyway with what i posted, nor is it evidence that the TSI has gone up in the last 40 years.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  8. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Best read this paper first:





    http://aip.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1063/1.4975498

    TSI is ONE element of solar forcing.

    Weak argument it weak....
    yes, absorbtion is the key.

    and thats why the climate has been changing, because we have changed the earths absorption with carbon gases.

    thanks for proving the point.

    the fire warming the house didn't get hotter, we just put more insulation in the walls, and thats why its warmer inside.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

  9. #29
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    I have 400 papers, this year, that say otherwise.

    That means no consensus. I can link to hundreds more. There is a paper for every time you have posted on this forum. Full, written out, contradictory paper.

    Those who are saying there is a consensus are lying - there is a great deal to figure out. Simple as that.
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  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    I have 400 papers, this year, that say otherwise.

    That means no consensus. I can link to hundreds more. There is a paper for every time you have posted on this forum. Full, written out, contradictory paper.

    Those who are saying there is a consensus are lying - there is a great deal to figure out. Simple as that.
    none of you papers show an increase in TSI.

    so, yes, there is a consensus. extra output from the sun is not what is warming the earth.
    social conservatism: the mortal fear that someone, somewhere, might be having fun.

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