I said it page 2 of this 50 page thread. I keep repeating myself, but this is from my first reply:
From the FIRST POINT of this conversation, I said warming has happened. Your comment is a Strawman Fallacy. The rate and the factors that affect the warming are what is in argument. I said that also. The models, which lead to OMG WE ARE GOING TO DIE headlines, are all wrong. That is what you are defending. Failure at every attempt.
You are saying I have a position that I do not. I was clear, and have been consistent throughout, that warming from 1850 has happened. And I believe that the huge, vast majority of it is Natural. And that CO2 has a small, very small part to play in it. I agree with the 200 year old physics experiment. The part that I don't agree with is the water feedback that would add a 3x forcing element.
That's it.
That is what made every single model model FAIL.
That failure you still try to support. This is our real disagreement, and you can't even argue my position. You have to make up shit about my position. Again and again. Try to say "I didn't explain something"
or "He doesn't thing things are warming", blah blah blah to distract from the simple truth. Attack my understand of the science when you didn't even know the basic, day one, well, day two, basics of Climate 101. I even provided a college level class as an example as how that is basic.
The Models failed. Their math is wrong. You're understanding is wrong.
You don't want to face that.
Trying to make shit up about my positions and then knocking down that strawman just shows how weak your position really is, and how little you understand me and mine.
Oh yeah, all
your models failed.
___________________
I don't care what you
believe Gordon, when it comes to TSI.
It doesn't matter. The two positions, AGW being the dominate factor, or not. Again - just read above. I have shown ample evidence that whatever you think is working, what the Alarmists are saying, it isn't actually doing what a
single model is predicting.
Not a single one.
That is what all the hubbaloo is based on. The models that said right now the arctic ocean should be ice free, florida under water, the world falling apart, that there would be no more snow.
NONE of those came true Gordon. NOT A SINGLE ONE.
The Theory just shows that whatever the alarmists are saying, they were wrong. There is no warming in the tropics at the 300mBar level. We have the same Greenland ice growth we did 30 years ago.
Antarctic ice levels match those from the early 1900s explorations, over 100 years ago.
https://www.sciencealert.com/early-e...over-100-years
All of your points are made wrong by data.
___________________________
John Christy video plus answers to audience questions. He brings up that Methane has a life span of a week, and so much more. He is an expert on both the models and actual collected data. 48 minutes in if you want to skip.
The NOAA prediction:
Reality:
But hey, out this week:
https://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...rs-earthquakes
And how about James Hansen? This is all his Theory.
Oh no! The oceans will boil!
So, anybody want to make a bet which it will be? Slight cooling, or total devastation and run away global warming? Say, a Beer or 2? Full 6 pack? I am game for a 15 years Scotch. Let's put our money and our mouth into this. (or maybe I like a Scotch.)
Gonna take that bet? If the Oceans Boil? How about if any single current IPCC model is proven correct, that the temp ends up within the median 30% range of error (+/-15% of the median point of the error bar) as correlated between the GHCN stations rated 1-2 on the scale, or the weather balloon dataset, or the satellite dataset.
If a single, currently used model is correct, I buy you a bottle of Scotch. Worth at least $100.
If it is the Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira paper Steve linked to, I will buy two. Within any part of their margin of error, even for the RPC2.6, no need to hit RPC8.5.
How about no bet?
I will buy Gordon and Steve a Scotch of their choosing if they are right and I am wrong, in 8 years, up too $120.
If you want to modify that bet a bit, go ahead. If I am wrong, I am wrong, and will even eat something foul if warranted. Shoot, I will do it on video. Twice. Once for each of you.
Best way to end an argument. I will put both my money and my mouth and maybe my whole digestive tract up in challenge.
(edit) Though, if we had made this bet 10 years ago, you both would be owing me some yummy Scotch. If you want to go in together, my wife's favorite is:
https://www.thewhiskyexchange.com/p/...-alexander-iii