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Thread: OT: Politics

  1. #671
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    The FBI and Law enforcement have no method to stop him? You are wrong, and even they said it:



    That means they had a method to stop him.



    a 'Good guy with a gun' is not a friggin cop. That is a citizen with a gun. You keep mixing these up. Here are 12 examples: http://controversialtimes.com/issues...uys-with-guns/

    The other police department didn't wait. THEY WENT RIGHT IN. The Coral Springs police officers, when they arrived, found the 3 Broward County deputies, guns drawn, behind their cars.

    The other officers there, their job WAS to go right in. Those are not 'Good Guys'.

    Oh, and fail 4 in your commentary: the kid only had 10 round capacity clips, not high capacity.

    https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/...ity-magazines/

    You basically got nothing right.
    there is no possible better "good guy with a gun" than a cop. 4 of them. sorry.

    from your own link "The caller provided information about Cruz*s gun ownership, desire to kill people, erratic behavior, and disturbing social media posts, as well as the potential of him conducting a school shooting."

    this is not grounds for law enforcement to be able to disarm or arrest him. another person saying you have a lot of guns is not a crime, even if you are mentally ill. and we have no method to take guns, or stop the mentally ill from buying guns.
    Last edited by cockerpunk; 03-05-2018 at 02:31 PM.
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  2. #672
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    Quote Originally Posted by cockerpunk View Post
    there is no possible better "good guy with a gun" than a cop. 4 of them. sorry.

    from your own link "The caller provided information about Cruz*s gun ownership, desire to kill people, erratic behavior, and disturbing social media posts, as well as the potential of him conducting a school shooting."

    this is not grounds for law enforcement to be able to disarm or arrest him. another person saying you have a lot of guns is not a crime, even if you are mentally ill. and we have no method to take guns, or stop the mentally ill from buying guns.
    There is a possible better good guy than a cop- the person that is there. If an armed individual is faced by an aggressor with a gun, even if the chance is really low (i.e. they don't have their glasses that allow them to obtain a decent sight picture, they've never practiced under stress, or fail to account for the area behind their target, etc) they are still the better option than the police officer or sheriff who isn't there. Or, in this case, standing outside.

    As for the 'failures' of the sheriff and police officers, what are the policies that may have influenced the officers (i.e. are they trained and directed to enter and attempt to interdict an active shooter? or call for SWAT?)? I don't know so, I'm not holding judgement. That being said, the FBI's failure is clear and, agree that the state/city probably did not have the policies in place to really interdict the shooter before the shooting (i.e. the intersections between mental health care, social services, and law enforcement).

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    Sorry, this is going to be a mouthful of a reply.

    I think it's fair to say that direct assistance welfare programs are relatively ineffective, though some baseline social safety net is a requirement to prevent "death in the streets". In fact, the research I'm aware of suggests that direct cash infusion is actually more dollar efficient than the total corpus of US social programs, though there's obviously a kind of moral teleology (fuck-you-got-mine-ism) that makes it unpalatable.
    It seems that way to me also - the current system spends about $65k per household in poverty if you include all of the various programs, which is about 12.5% to 15%. Since the poverty level is about $20k for the US on average, we could provide direct assistance for a good portion of them. In fact, that is part in parcel to the reasoning behind Milton Friedman's Negative Tax, which results in the EIC to some extent. It would be a cheaper way to do it, and it could be easier over all to implement. Further down I will explore this, hence the length of this. I feel this is a root cause with the crime and related issues the result.

    Josh, I think one think that has to be said, is that when the issue of mass shootings is conflated with gang violence, it really smacks of racism. It is humorous to see the conclusion that "maintaining a full time job" is associated with success. Like, obviously. However, you're talking about a population that's overincarcerated and undereducated, which makes the prospects of gainful employment difficult to begin with. Additionally, there tends to be a parallel, highly lucrative and socially acceptable shadow economy running parallel to the system, where traits such as amenability to risk and previous incarceration are actually part of the curriculum vitae.
    That is an interesting conclusion that it is racism, but the common trait has to do with fathers. Fathers are not a race. Marriage is not a factor of race. Your discussion should be on culture then, and not race. There is no race that loses fathers at that age range, or has a change chemically due to their race that makes them leave. There is no race based reason for the difference. None. Why connect the two? This reeks of baiting an issue on the wrong premise. In fact it is looking at it backwards in a way.

    Until the 1950's the amount of married couples vs divorced, or raised by a single mother between black, white and hispanic was about the same. That changed after the 60s, and now a disportionate amount of families are raised by single parents in all of the different demographics than there were, but especially in the black community. That is a cultural shift. A big one. As I have been very clear before on this topic in the past, the issue is a Cultural one, not Race. But why?

    From Brookings also:

    In 1965, 24 percent of black infants and 3.1 percent of white infants were born to single mothers. By 1990 the rates had risen to 64 percent for black infants, 18 percent for whites. Every year about one million more children are born into fatherless families. If we have learned any policy lesson well over the past 25 years, it is that for children living in single-parent homes, the odds of living in poverty are great. The policy implications of the increase in out-of-wedlock births are staggering.
    And more recently:

    With little fanfare, the federal government has posted its annual compilation of birth data, including out-of-wedlock births. Here*s the bad news (essentially unchanged from last year): Preliminary data indicate that 40.7 percent of all 2012 births were out-of-wedlock, which is appalling, and there are vast differences among racial and ethnic groups. Among non-Hispanic blacks, the figure is highest, at 72.2 percent; for American Indians/Alaska Natives, it*s 66.9 percent; 53.5 percent for Hispanics; 29.4 percent for non-Hispanic whites; and a mere 17.1 percent for Asians/Pacific Islanders.
    In relation to the amount of reported crime, it is incarcerated representative to the amount reported. What tends to keep a kid out of crime? Their father.

    In the UK, at British Psychological Society's division of forensic psychology in Birmingham:

    But there was one "very striking" difference between the two groups: 55% of the "good boys" lived with their biological fathers, compared with only 4% of the "bad boys". Almost 80% of the "good boys" spoke of being close to their biological fathers. Among these were 24% of the group who said they had a biological father living away from home who was an influence in their lives. Only 18% said there was no one they regarded as a father figure, while 3% said they had a stepfather. Among the "bad boys", 45% said they had no one they considered a father figure, 30% said they had a stepfather, 22% a biological father not living at home and only 4% a father living at home.

    It also suggested that a father who disapproved of crime and showed an interest in his son acted as a crucial social control, countering negative influences such as criminal peers. Boys gained a sense of being loved and approved of, and the fear of jeopardising this proved enough to deter them from crime, she said.

    "For children in this age group, formal controls - such as being told off by police - aren't enough."
    Dr Taylor denied that her work suggested that "at risk" boys needed to live in a nuclear family. "It's not necessarily about them living with their biological fathers but about having someone they think of as a father who shows an interest in them and what they're doing," she said. The research, far from providing fodder for the rightwing family values lobby, could be seen as a boon for single mothers, she said. "This suggests we should move away from pathologising single mums and instead see that, if there are dangers, it's due to the absence of fathers."
    I believe you are reaching your conclusion backwards. They are not a group that is acting up due to race differences in how they are treated or otherwise. What has been shown, time and time again, is that lacking a father present, is the very reason they ARE committing more crime and doing poorly in school. The reason for high crime and poor grades has less to do with any factor other than having a father present to keep them well guided. The crime and poor grades are the symptom. They are not the virus. They are the result. This is a very consistent finding. That you have it in common with both groups, gang killings and mass shooters, says quite a bit. And that actually shows it has nothing to do with race, but with parenting. So why the split, the cultural change.

    Back on topic:

    I don't think economically incentivizing marriage will do anything, except perhaps increase the number of fake marriages.
    But....we economically incentivize not being married. And not working. That is considered on of the problems with Welfare, and exactly the problems you mention before. This results in the "moral teleology" you mentioned. Lets look at the problem with the current bit:

    Welfare is supposed to work as a safety net, a resource that serves as a stopgap when someone temporarily falls on hard times. Payments are meant to be temporary, to help out until someone can get back on their feet and support themselves. "You lose a job, you go on food stamps for three, four, five months and you go off," Harvey said Monday during a book forum at the libertarian Cato Institute. That's how welfare is supposed to work, and how it does work for some, but now too many people are staying on welfare for years and years.

    The major problem with welfare is what's called the "benefits cliff." As soon as someone on welfare starts to earn a little money their various benefits might get cut off completely. Sometimes, tens of thousands of dollars in benefits can be threatened by earning a tiny sum. "The whole psychology about work changes when you're on these programs. All the sudden, the value of the programs becomes greater than a job you could get," Conyers said.

    "Oh no no no, you're earning a little money now. We're going to have to cut your benefits," Harvey said, quoting what one caseworker said to a woman on welfare. "Now that woman is afraid to earn any money at all now, exactly the opposite of what I think people in poverty want to do to themselves, and exactly the opposite of what we would like them to be able to do."
    And on marriages:

    For the next few decades, means-tested welfare programs such as food stamps, public housing, Medicaid, day care, and Temporary Assistance to Needy Families penalized marriage. A mother generally received far more money from welfare if she was single rather than married. Once she took a husband, her benefits were instantly reduced by roughly 10 to 20 percent. As a Cato Institute study noted, welfare programs for the poor incentivize the very behaviors that are most likely to perpetuate poverty.[2] Another Cato report observes:

    *Of course women do not get pregnant just to get welfare benefits.... But, by removing the economic consequences of out-of-wedlock birth, welfare has removed a major incentive to avoid such pregnancies. A teenager looking around at her friends and neighbors is liable to see several who have given birth out-of- wedlock. When she sees that they have suffered few visible consequences ... she is less inclined to modify her own behavior to prevent pregnancy.... Current welfare policies seem to be designed with an appalling lack of concern for their impact on out-of-wedlock births. Indeed, Medicaid programs in 11 states actually provide infertility treatments to single women on welfare.*

    The marriage penalties that are embedded in welfare programs can be particularly severe if a woman on public assistance weds a man who is employed in a low-paying job. As a FamilyScholars.org report puts it: *When a couple's income nears the limits prescribed by Medicaid, a few extra dollars in income cause thousands of dollars in benefits to be lost. What all of this means is that the two most important routes out of poverty*marriage and work*are heavily taxed under the current U.S. system.*[3]

    The aforementioned FamilyScholars.org report adds that *such a system encourages surreptitious cohabitation,* where *many low-income parents will cohabit without reporting it to the government so that their benefits won't be cut.* These couples *avoid marriage because marriage would result in a substantial loss of income for the family.*

    A 2011 study conducted jointly by the Institute for American Values* Center for Marriage and Families and the University of Virginia's National Marriage Project suggests that *the rise of cohabiting households with children is the largest unrecognized threat to the quality and stability of children*s family lives.* The researchers conclude that cohabiting relationships are highly prone to instability, and that children in such homes are consequently less likely to thrive, more likely to be abused, and more prone to suffering *serious emotional problems.*

    William Galston, President Bill Clinton's Deputy Assistant to the President for Domestic Affairs, estimated that the welfare system, with its economic disincentives to marriage, was responsible for at least 15% to 20% of the family disintegration in the United States. Libertarian scholar Charles Murray has placed the figure at somewhere around 50%. By Murray's reckoning, the growth and increased liberalization of the *welfare complex* have eroded the traditional ethos of working-class communities that once held people who worked at low-wage jobs, and men who married the mothers of their children, in much higher esteem than unwed parents who became wards of the state.
    So, long and hard with both sides of the political fence we can see that the way welfare is structured it actually works against helping people off of it, due to the benefits loss and also the penalty for being married.

    With the strong relation between crime, gangs, mass shooting and the lack of a father then with the welfare system penalizing marriage we can see strong connections for the welfare process 'as is' being the motivator for more crime and gangs. I know, I take the long road. But most of that is just there to support what would otherwise be a simple to ignore connection.

    But it really is simple. Welfare 'As It Is Now' incentivises both not working (to some extent) which results in people not keeping a job, and also continuing the relationship with your baby's father.

    Reforming welfare to a clearer system that doesn't penalize work and fatherhood in affect is reducing crime, gangs, and mass shootings. That is basically what you were suggesting in the first place, and I was in agreement, but the reason has to do with trying to reverse a large number of unintended consequences.
    _____________________________


    Additionally, these areas tend to be food deserts
    Food deserts are already busted. Shoot, a few years ago junk science. Keep up man.

    http://marginalrevolution.com/margin...d-deserts.html
    https://www.acsh.org/news/2012/04/18...serts-desserts
    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/18/he...n-studies.html
    https://www.npr.org/2010/12/15/13207...he-food-desert
    http://cityobservatory.org/more-doub...-food-deserts/
    http://www.slate.com/articles/life/f...t_obesity.html

    http://www.nber.org/papers/w24094:

    We study the causes of *nutritional inequality*: why the wealthy tend to eat more healthfully than the poor in the U.S. Using event study designs exploiting supermarket entry and households' moves to healthier neighborhoods, we reject that neighborhood environments have meaningful effects on healthy eating. Using a structural demand model, we find that exposing low-income households to the same availability and prices experienced by high-income households reduces nutritional inequality by only 9%, while the remaining 91% is driven by differences in demand. These findings contrast with discussions of nutritional inequality that emphasize supply-side factors such as food deserts.
    Sorry - dislike this bit of junk science.

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  4. #674
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    That statement you've quoted on food deserts completely ignores habituated behaviors.

    Besides, as a libertarian your response should be "low nutrition, low price food is why we need to stop massively subsidizing corn".
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    A person who stays by their car, and doesn't rush in to protect a bunch of teachers and kids, 4 on 1, is not a "Good Guy." That is a failure. Note, the other officers who arrived at the scene just went and and did their job. They were the good guys.

    And yes, Gordon, the FBI's job is to stop school shooters. To investigate. You omitted that part, they start an investigation and then remove the guns. Maybe the next sentence? Did I bold it? Yes I did. Have you had your glasses checked yet? The police don't always have that right, the FBI does. hmm... what is they are supposed to do?

    On January 14, 2013, President Barack Obama signed the Investigative Assistance for Violent Crimes Act of 2012 into law. The act permits the attorney general, upon the request of an appropriate state or local law enforcement officer, to provide assistance in the investigation of 1) violent acts and shootings occurring in a *place of public use* and 2) mass killings*defined as three or more killings in a single incident*and attempted mass killings. Under the act, federal officials assisting the investigation of these incidents are presumed to be acting within the scope of their employment.

    The FBI*s efforts include three areas of support. First, before an incident occurs, agencies can obtain no-cost, active-shooter training close to home by submitting a request via the ALERRT website,http://www.alerrt.org. The site provides general information, requirements for hosting a school in a particular area, and registration materials. Department officials also can call the special agent in charge of their local FBI field office for further registration assistance.

    Second, experts in the FBI*s Behavioral Analysis Unit (BAU) are available to conduct threat assessments and develop threat mitigation strategies for persons of concern. BAU is part of the FBI*s Critical Incident Response Group, home to the FBI*s most sophisticated tactical assets. Each FBI field office has a BAU representative to the FBI*s National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crimes (NCAVC). The NCAVC focuses its efforts not on how to respond tactically to an active-shooter situation, but, rather, how to prevent one. These experts can work as part of a team to prevent a situation from escalating by identifying, assessing, and managing the threat.
    Wow, if they had only gotten a tip about an active shooter! Or if the cops 2 years leading up to the event just went to alerrt.org. You know. Like they are supposed to. Sounds like a cool TV show to me. Let's look into it more:

    Threat Analysis: Communicated threats are evaluated to determine whether the author or
    caller has the intent, knowledge, or means to carry out any stated or implied threat. A
    behavioral description of the unknown offender may be provided to assist in
    identication and apprehension. Known offenders who make threats or who appear to
    pose a danger may be assessed for potential dangerousness, given appropriate and
    sufficient background data.
    So much more at the website! Well, looks like another claim of yours is wrong. I mean, totally wrong - they are SPECIFICALLY TASKED WITH DOING EXACTLY THAT.

    In addition, like the case in Anchorage, they are allowed to take a gun away from someone entering a school with a gun. They all are. Remember? Gun free zones.
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  6. #676
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    Besides, as a libertarian your response should be "low nutrition, low price food is why we need to stop massively subsidizing corn".
    That made me laugh. True, very true.

    That statement you've quoted on food deserts completely ignores habituated behaviors.
    Actually.... I quoted: "Using event study designs exploiting supermarket entry and households' moves to healthier neighborhoods, we reject that neighborhood environments have meaningful effects on healthy eating. Using a structural demand model, we find that exposing low-income households to the same availability and prices experienced by high-income households reduces nutritional inequality by only 9%, while the remaining 91% is driven by differences in demand. Which basically is the same thing.
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  7. #677
    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    A person who stays by their car, and doesn't rush in to protect a bunch of teachers and kids, 4 on 1, is not a "Good Guy." That is a failure. Note, the other officers who arrived at the scene just went and and did their job. They were the good guys.

    And yes, Gordon, the FBI's job is to stop school shooters. To investigate. You omitted that part, they start an investigation and then remove the guns. Maybe the next sentence? Did I bold it? Yes I did. Have you had your glasses checked yet? The police don't always have that right, the FBI does. hmm... what is they are supposed to do?



    Wow, if they had only gotten a tip about an active shooter! Or if the cops 2 years leading up to the event just went to alerrt.org. You know. Like they are supposed to. Sounds like a cool TV show to me. Let's look into it more:



    So much more at the website! Well, looks like another claim of yours is wrong. I mean, totally wrong - they are SPECIFICALLY TASKED WITH DOING EXACTLY THAT.

    In addition, like the case in Anchorage, they are allowed to take a gun away from someone entering a school with a gun. They all are. Remember? Gun free zones.
    Read the actual statute. The statute deals with investigative support for a mass shooting that has occurred or an attempted mass shooting (attempt is a tricky issue, i.e. when do thoughts become actions). Also, the FBI must be requested by State and Local for assistance, they can't just show up https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-1...112publ265.pdf. Regarding the Anchorage situation they could take away the gun because he actually broke the law. Either way, the statute you posted wouldn't allow the FBI to take away his guns or restrict his purchase of one.

  8. #678
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    Quote Originally Posted by pbjosh View Post
    Actually.... I quoted: "Using event study designs exploiting supermarket entry and households' moves to healthier neighborhoods, we reject that neighborhood environments have meaningful effects on healthy eating. Using a structural demand model, we find that exposing low-income households to the same availability and prices experienced by high-income households reduces nutritional inequality by only 9%, while the remaining 91% is driven by differences in demand. Which basically is the same thing.
    Riiight....

    ...which completely ignores habituated behaviors.

    And buying power for that matter.
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    I thought it directly said when given the chance (ie, allowing them the same ability of options and price equity), only 9% of low income people took the options of a better diet, and 91% of people stayed with their habitual diets. Differences in demand being - the choice to not eat Kale. The "You can lead a horse to water" problem.
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    Either way, the statute you posted wouldn't allow the FBI to take away his guns or restrict his purchase of one.
    Now, the Grassley-Cruz one would have allowed the police to help him find mental help, allowing them direct intervention. Also it might have prevented his instability in the first place. In addition due to the number of calls to the office he would have been put on a nationwide 'do not buy list' due to his high level of interaction with the police.

    But would you agree that a better database and more support for mental health issues be a benefit? Or do you think otherwise?

    Here is a curious question. Both you and Gordon don't think the FBI is at fault. But the FBI themselves said they dropped the ball, and that if they had followed procedure, they would have stopped this from occurring. And they take responsibility. Are you saying the FBI are incorrect in the assessment of their own process...? That they came to the wrong conclusion?

    That seems curious. What do you know that they don't?
    Last edited by pbjosh; 03-05-2018 at 08:31 PM.
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